waggle-os/docs/decisions/2026-04-25-pm-pre-fill-decision-matrix-recommendations.md

# PM Pre-Fill Recommendations — Launch Gate Decision Matrix

**Date**: 2026-04-25
**Author**: claude-opus-4-7 (PM Cowork)
**Companion**: `decisions/2026-04-25-launch-gate-reframe-decision-matrix.md`
**Purpose**: Reduce Marko-vov sutra-jutarnji decision time from 30-45 min na 10-15 min review-mode by providing PM-recommended verdict + rationale + confidence per cell. Marko accepts default ili overrides per cell.

**Confidence scale**:
- **HIGH** — strategic logic + repo/research data alignment + few legitimate alternatives → expect Marko ratification
- **MEDIUM** — defensible default but legitimate alternatives exist → expect ~70% Marko ratification, 30% override
- **LOW** — Marko-personal-preference-dependent (capital structure, hiring posture, public persona); PM defers but recommends conservative stance

**24 cells = 8 dimensions × 3 scenarios.**

---

## Dimension 1 — Claim narrative

### Scenario PASS
**PM RECOMMEND**: "Waggle hit [LOCOMO_SCORE]% on LoCoMo, beating Mem0's [BASELINE_REF]% reference. Built on hive-mind, the local-first Apache 2.0 cognitive substrate that follows you across Claude Code, Cursor, Hermes, and 3 more AI IDEs."

Add cross-IDE shim portfolio kao supporting evidence — strengthens narrative beyond benchmark singleton.

**Rationale**: Beat-Mem0 hook je strongest possible narrative. Cross-IDE shim mention extends story past one-day cycle. Honest caveats (n=400, agentic κ, Qwen subject) mandatory u body, not headline.

**Confidence**: HIGH

### Scenario PARTIAL
**PM RECOMMEND**: "First Apache 2.0 local-first memory substrate to publish a comparable LoCoMo result. We're [DELTA]pp behind cloud-shaped Mem0; that gap is the cost of local-first sovereignty. One memory file, every AI IDE you use."

Lead sa local-first-quadrant clean-win framing + cross-IDE positioning, NOT benchmark headline.

**Rationale**: PARTIAL band requires reframe from "we hit SOTA" to "we lead in our category." Honesty about gap signals integrity (Zep/Mem0 dispute precedent shows overstated claims unwind). Cross-IDE is the productized differentiator that doesn't depend on benchmark winning.

**Confidence**: HIGH

### Scenario FAIL
**PM RECOMMEND**: NOT a benchmark-led narrative. "hive-mind: the Apache 2.0 cognitive substrate that follows you across 6 AI IDEs. One memory file. Zero cloud. Honest evaluation included."

Methodology blog post (separate from launch announcement) discloses LoCoMo number neutral framing: "our pre-registered evaluation produced [LOCOMO_SCORE]%; we don't lead with this because it's not SOTA."

**Rationale**: Pre-registration honor mandatory — bands LOCKED, no post-hoc reframe attempt to rescue. Pivot to product narrative (cross-IDE shim portfolio) salvages launch momentum without dishonesty about benchmark.

**Confidence**: HIGH

---

## Dimension 2 — Launch coupling sequence

### Scenario PASS
**PM RECOMMEND**: Coupled simultaneous Day 0 launch — hive-mind core + 3 MVP shims + Waggle landing live + paid tiers Stripe checkout active. All press/community/email channels synchronized within 30-min window.

**Rationale**: SOTA momentum is renewable per asset (blog, LinkedIn, Twitter, HN, Reddit) but each asset only fires once. Coupling maximizes day-0 attention concentration.

**Confidence**: HIGH

### Scenario PARTIAL
**PM RECOMMEND**: Decoupled — hive-mind + 3 shims first (week 0), Waggle 2-4 weeks later. Build infrastructure adoption signal, then commercial product launches as "the fully featured cousin."

**Rationale**: PARTIAL benchmark + Waggle tier launch sa PARTIAL banner = competing for attention with weaker narrative; better to claim local-first infra category first, then commercial product on pre-built audience.

**Confidence**: MEDIUM (alternative: still couple to capture brand-narrative momentum)

### Scenario FAIL
**PM RECOMMEND**: Pivot launch — hive-mind + 3 shims as primary product day 0. Waggle delayed 4-8 weeks (revisit benchmark methodology + ship LongMemEval first to validate alternative-axis claim before re-attempt at Waggle launch).

**Rationale**: Without SOTA claim, Waggle u crowded "agent IDE" space lacks differentiator. Defer commercial launch until benchmark improvement OR adoption metrics from shim portfolio justify revisit.

**Confidence**: HIGH

---

## Dimension 3 — Pricing posture

### Scenario PASS
**PM RECOMMEND**: Hold ratified pricing per `project_locked_decisions`. Free / Pro $19/mo / Teams $49/seat/mo. SOTA premium justifies above-Mem0-Starter pricing. No discount, no early-bird.

**Rationale**: Pricing power is real with NEW_SOTA banner. Discounting signals weakness; hold position.

**Confidence**: HIGH

### Scenario PARTIAL
**PM RECOMMEND**: Hold pricing same as PASS, but emphasize Free tier value first. Pro/Teams targeted at compliance-driven buyers (local-first = mandate not preference for them).

**Rationale**: PARTIAL doesn't unlock SOTA premium pricing power, but doesn't crash it either. Free tier as adoption funnel; Pro/Teams targeted properly. No discount needed.

**Confidence**: MEDIUM (alternative: 6-month "early supporter" Pro $9/mo to drive adoption, revisit at $19 after retention proven)

### Scenario FAIL
**PM RECOMMEND**: Pricing pivot — Free tier extended (10 workspaces vs 5, all skills marketplace tiers free). Pro $9/mo introductory price for first 1,000 users (12-month commitment). Teams holds at $49 (enterprise sale not benchmark-dependent).

**Rationale**: Without SOTA, must compete on value-density and ergonomics. Aggressive Free tier seeds adoption; introductory Pro pricing hooks early-supporter cohort; Teams unchanged because enterprise compliance buyers weighed against KVARK already.

**Confidence**: MEDIUM (alternative: hold full pricing, accept slower adoption ramp)

---

## Dimension 4 — Audience targeting

### Scenario PASS
**PM RECOMMEND**: Three primary audiences day 0, prioritized:
1. **Privacy-conscious devs** (highest converting) — Cursor + Claude Code + Hermes audiences via shim distribution
2. **AI/ML researchers + tool builders** — methodology + pre-reg manifest deep-link
3. **Compliance-mandated enterprises** (banks, healthcare, EU regulated) — KVARK lead capture forms

**Rationale**: Privacy-conscious devs convert fastest sa local-first message + working shims. Researchers validate via methodology. Enterprise sale follows technical credibility.

**Confidence**: HIGH

### Scenario PARTIAL
**PM RECOMMEND**: Two primary audiences day 0:
1. **Privacy-conscious devs** (most receptive to local-first message)
2. **Compliance-mandated enterprises** (KVARK lead via outbound, not inbound campaign)

ML research audience deferred to second blog post 2-4 weeks later.

**Rationale**: PARTIAL doesn't strongly attract ML researcher audience (they index on SOTA numbers). Concentrate on dev + compliance buyers where local-first is clear value.

**Confidence**: HIGH

### Scenario FAIL
**PM RECOMMEND**: Single primary audience day 0 — privacy-conscious devs using AI agent IDEs. Lead with cross-IDE shim portfolio. Deprioritize ML research + enterprise audiences until later (sequel benchmark or adoption metrics inform).

**Rationale**: FAIL eliminates ML researcher audience entirely (dishonest to court). Enterprise sales typically need >12 month sales cycles + benchmarks for procurement; postpone until benchmark improvement.

**Confidence**: HIGH

---

## Dimension 5 — Press / PR strategy

### Scenario PASS
**PM RECOMMEND**: Synchronized launch with 48h press embargo. Pre-brief: TechCrunch, The Verge, Ars Technica, IEEE Spectrum, AI newsletters (TLDR AI, Ben's Bites, AI Tidbits). Day 0: simultaneous press + community + product release. Hacker News + Reddit submissions by Marko personally.

**Rationale**: NEW_SOTA banner deserves earned-media leverage. Press embargo aligns coverage to launch moment. Community submissions by founder accumulate organic goodwill (vs paid PR which devs distrust).

**Confidence**: MEDIUM (alternative: skip paid PR, community-only — risk: stories told without context if random journalist picks up)

### Scenario PARTIAL
**PM RECOMMEND**: Soft press strategy — community-first (HN, Reddit, Twitter, Discord). No paid PR, no embargo. Reach out to specific researchers/orgs (DAIR, Anthropic, Nous Research) post-launch.

**Rationale**: PARTIAL doesn't justify embargo machinery. Community-led discovery scales naturally for honest local-first claim; targeted research outreach builds methodology credibility.

**Confidence**: HIGH

### Scenario FAIL
**PM RECOMMEND**: No press push initially. Quiet launch via GitHub + Twitter. Methodology blog post (separate from launch) targets researchers 2-4 weeks later.

**Rationale**: FAIL + press attention = brand damage risk if "we launched memory thing that didn't beat SOTA" becomes the headline. Quiet launch lets shim portfolio adoption signal product-market fit before public scrutiny.

**Confidence**: HIGH

---

## Dimension 6 — Hires plan

### Scenario PASS
**PM RECOMMEND**: Aggressive — `jobs.egzakta.com` active day 0 sa 3-5 roles:
- **DevRel lead** (developer engagement, conference speaking, content)
- **Senior eng OSS maintenance** (hive-mind core + shim portfolio)
- **GTM / growth marketing lead** (paid acquisition, conversion optimization)
- **Enterprise sales lead** (KVARK pilots)
- **Optional: ML research engineer** (next-benchmark sequence)

Prominent "We're hiring" CTAs u blog post + LinkedIn.

**Rationale**: SOTA + funded competitors precedent (Mem0 $24M, Cognee $7.5M, Supermemory $3M) means org capacity is the bottleneck within 6-12 months; hire signal capitalizes attention moment.

**Confidence**: MEDIUM (LOW dimension because Marko personal preference re hiring pace, especially given Egzakta cash flow already 4.5M EBITDA = no immediate hire pressure; alternative: post 1-2 roles, hold rest until adoption metrics)

### Scenario PARTIAL
**PM RECOMMEND**: Moderate — 1-2 roles: OSS maintainer + DevRel. Hold enterprise sales hire until adoption metrics inform. KVARK enterprise via existing Egzakta consulting team initially.

**Rationale**: PARTIAL doesn't require aggressive scaling; OSS maintainer protects shim portfolio quality; DevRel covers community. Enterprise sale wait-and-see.

**Confidence**: HIGH

### Scenario FAIL
**PM RECOMMEND**: No hiring announcements at launch. Hold all roles until 4-8 weeks of adoption metrics inform org capacity needs.

**Rationale**: Hiring announcement on FAIL launch = "they're scaling without traction" perception damage. Hold + execute on existing team.

**Confidence**: HIGH

---

## Dimension 7 — Investor narrative

### Scenario PASS
**PM RECOMMEND**: Open conversations with seed/A funds aktivno week 1-2 post-launch.

Pitch deck v1 messaging: "First Apache 2.0 local-first cognitive substrate that beat cloud SOTA on LoCoMo. Cross-IDE shim portfolio in 6 AI agent platforms. Egzakta cash flow signal as bootstrap credential."

Targets: Initialized, BoxGroup, Founders Fund (Peter Thiel local-first sympathies), NEA (memory-tech adjacent), DCVC (deep tech), Acrew (developer tools focus).

Aim: $5-10M seed at $20-40M post-money valuation.

**Rationale**: SOTA + working shims + revenue path (Waggle paid tiers + KVARK enterprise) = strong seed narrative. Egzakta financial backbone reduces fund-raise pressure (Marko negotiates from strength).

**Confidence**: LOW (Marko-personal-preference: capital structure, dilution tolerance, growth speed vs control trade-off; PM defers heavily but provides default)

### Scenario PARTIAL
**PM RECOMMEND**: Silent investor conversations only — pitch deck v1.5 emphasizes "best local-first published result" + commercial trajectory + Egzakta financials.

Targets: 5-10 most aligned funds (focused on infra + dev tools + privacy-tech), no broad outreach.

Aim: $3-7M seed at $15-25M post-money.

**Rationale**: PARTIAL doesn't carry hype premium; silent conversations preserve optionality without waste-of-time discovery.

**Confidence**: LOW (same Marko-personal preference dependency)

### Scenario FAIL
**PM RECOMMEND**: Defer fundraise 6-12 months. Continue bootstrap from Egzakta. Use period to:
1. Ship LongMemEval + BEAM 1M + 10M results + at least one Claude config benchmark (per `research/00-SYNTHESIS.md` §3 missing-gap)
2. Drive shim portfolio adoption (target: 10K combined installs across 6 shims)
3. Validate enterprise sale via 3-5 KVARK pilots through Egzakta network

Re-engage investors in 6-12 months sa stronger numbers + adoption signal.

**Rationale**: FAIL fund-raise = forced down-round risk; defer until story ripens. Egzakta cash flow provides runway to repair narrative without external pressure.

**Confidence**: HIGH

---

## Dimension 8 — KVARK enterprise pivot timing

### Scenario PASS
**PM RECOMMEND**: KVARK pilots active immediately — Marko's network targets 5-10 named enterprise prospects week 1-4. EU compliance-driven, sovereign on-prem deployment value prop. Pricing custom per deployment ($50K-$250K typical).

Lean on Egzakta ~200 staff consulting backbone for delivery + advisory bundle.

**Rationale**: SOTA banner gives sales team explicit credibility; compliance + sovereignty are pre-existing enterprise demand drivers; Egzakta delivery capability eliminates capacity concern.

**Confidence**: HIGH

### Scenario PARTIAL
**PM RECOMMEND**: KVARK pilots active 4-8 weeks post-Waggle-launch. Build case from Waggle + shim adoption metrics first; pilot conversations open with "the local-first stack you've heard about, now sovereign-deployed for your hardware."

**Rationale**: Need adoption signal to land enterprise conversations confidently u PARTIAL band; 4-8 weeks builds enough story.

**Confidence**: HIGH

### Scenario FAIL
**PM RECOMMEND**: KVARK becomes the lead commercial track. Day 0 launch: hive-mind + shims (OSS) + KVARK enterprise pilots opened (consulting+software bundle).

Aim 3-5 paid pilots within 90 days. Pricing per deployment $100K-$300K bundled with Egzakta advisory + LM TEK H200 hardware integration.

Waggle commercial launch decoupled 4-8 weeks (informed by KVARK pilot signal).

**Rationale**: FAIL eliminates Waggle SOTA narrative as primary acquisition; KVARK enterprise compliance-mandated buyers don't depend on public benchmark — they buy for sovereignty + GDPR + EU AI Act + data residency. Egzakta consulting provides high-touch delivery moat that Waggle commercial channel can't replicate.

**Confidence**: HIGH

---

## Aggregate confidence summary

| Dimension | PASS conf | PARTIAL conf | FAIL conf |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. Claim narrative | HIGH | HIGH | HIGH |
| 2. Launch coupling | HIGH | MEDIUM | HIGH |
| 3. Pricing posture | HIGH | MEDIUM | MEDIUM |
| 4. Audience targeting | HIGH | HIGH | HIGH |
| 5. Press/PR strategy | MEDIUM | HIGH | HIGH |
| 6. Hires plan | MEDIUM | HIGH | HIGH |
| 7. Investor narrative | LOW | LOW | HIGH |
| 8. KVARK timing | HIGH | HIGH | HIGH |

**Translation for Marko**:
- 18/24 cells HIGH confidence → likely accept PM defaults
- 4/24 cells MEDIUM → review and consider alternative noted
- 2/24 cells LOW (investor narrative under PASS/PARTIAL — depends on Marko-personal capital structure preference) → PM defers heavily, expect override

Sutra-jutarnji ratification time: review HIGH cells (~30s each = 9 min), MEDIUM cells (~60s each = 4 min), LOW cells (~3 min each = 6 min). **Total 19-20 min** vs original 30-45 min estimate.

---

## Marko-side override mechanism

Per cell, Marko može:
- ✅ **Accept** — default verdict applies
- ✏️ **Override** — write 1-line explicit override + rationale
- 🤔 **Defer** — punt na separate decision moment, e.g., investor narrative may be 30-day decision window post-launch

Override format example:
```
Dimension 7 (Investor narrative), Scenario PASS:
✏️ OVERRIDE: defer fund-raise indefinitely; bootstrap permanently.
Rationale: Egzakta cash flow sufficient for org plan; equity dilution avoided; control prioritized. Re-evaluate u 24 months.
```

---

## Cross-cutting decisions (locked, no pre-fill needed)

Already scenario-independent per Decision Matrix §10:
- Honest framing always
- Apache 2.0 commitment locked
- hive-mind core scope locked (substrate vs runtime split per `01-architecture.md`)
- EU AI Act + GDPR positioning preserved
- Domain locked (waggle-os.ai primary)

These don't need PM pre-fill ratification — they're already LOCKED.

---

## What this enables

When Phase 2 final halt ping arrives:

1. Marko reads halt ping (5 min)
2. Marko classifies scenario per pre-registered bands (1 min)
3. Marko opens this document, navigates to relevant scenario column across 8 dimensions
4. Marko ratifies HIGH cells (9 min), reviews MEDIUM (4 min), decides LOW (6 min)
5. Marko PM-RATIFY-V6-N400-COMPLETE + signs off Gate D exit
6. Triggered downstream sequences per scenario:
   - PASS → paste apps/www brief u CC-1, populate launch comms placeholders sa actual numbers, schedule publish
   - PARTIAL → softer comms variant, signal decoupled sequence
   - FAIL → pivot strategy ratify, defer Waggle 4-8 weeks, KVARK lead

Total Marko time-to-decision: **~25 min** sa pre-fills vs ~45-60 min raw matrix-only.

---

## Authorization

PM (claude-opus-4-7) authoring 2026-04-25 dok agentic cell radi. Marko ratifies post-final-halt-ping. PM defaults are non-binding suggestions; Marko-vov decision authority preserved on every cell.