waggle-os/docs/briefs/2026-04-24-cc1-v6-section-5-2-clarification-brief.md

CC-1 Brief — v6 §5.2 Quorum Clarification + Phase 2 N=400 Resume

Date: 2026-04-24 (evening, post-Phase 2 pre-flight blocker) Status: §5.2 amendment under v6 authority, unblocks Phase 2 N=400 kick Authorized by: Marko Marković (pending ratification via PM-ADJUDICATE-V6-PHASE2-BLOCKERS Option B) Predecessor: Phase 2 pre-flight BLOCKED on §11 conflict + Kimi backup unready PM: claude-opus-4-7 (Cowork)

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§0 Adjudication summary

Pre-flight halt findings adjudicated: Option B ACCEPT — drop Kimi backup, accept evaluator_loss on MiniMax failures.

Rationale (full text in PM adjudication response):

• MiniMax Phase 1 empirical reliability: 100/100 parse, 0 errors → projected <1% failure rate
• Kimi backup structurally unreliable (67-71% parse on probe samples) — insurance that fails when needed
• §5.2 clarification scope, not §10 deviation — v7 re-pre-reg not required
• Minimal engineering: single amendment commit + direct N=400 kick (15-30 min vs 2-4h alternatives)

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§1 v6 §5.2 amendment specification

§1.1 Current §5.2 text (v6 anchor 60d061e)

Pre-registered: "One judge call per instance per primary; backup activated only on primary failure. No prompt-level batching. Identical prompt template per failure-mode-judge.ts:245-258 verbatim. 2-of-3 quorum on primary cells, tie-break policy on splits per existing runner logic."

§1.2 Amendment (insert clarification paragraph)

Add to §5.2:

§5.2.1 Failover behavior on MiniMax unavailability (clarification).
The pre-registered backup activation ("Kimi K2.6 per-instance failover")
is RETRACTED based on §1.3g-h-C Kimi reliability findings (parse rate
67-71% on challenging samples, p50 32s latency, p95 exceeds 60s timeout
threshold). Kimi retirement from v6 ensemble is a clarification, not
substantive methodology change: ensemble membership (Opus+GPT+MiniMax trio),
primary hypothesis test, and κ baseline remain unchanged.

Quorum policy on MiniMax failure (API error, parse fail, timeout >60s
after standard 3-retry judge-runner policy):
- If Opus and GPT agree → majority verdict = their consensus (2-of-2 quorum)
- If Opus and GPT disagree → evaluator_loss marker, instance excluded
  from primary hypothesis analysis
- Expected MiniMax failure rate <1% per Phase 1 empirical evidence
  (100/100 parse, 0 routing errors)
- Expected evaluator_loss rate projected <1% of N=400

§5.2.2 Kimi alias retention in litellm-config.
Kimi alias (`kimi-k26-direct`) retained in litellm-config.yaml as orphan
declaration (not invoked by runner). Removal would require additional
config amendment commit; retention preserves audit trail of v6 Phase 1
intent and is zero-cost operationally.

§1.3 Deliverable

Single amendment commit to benchmarks/preregistration/manifest-v6-preregistration.md AND manifest-v6-preregistration.yaml (twin update).

Commit message: [v6] §5.2 clarification: retract Kimi backup per §1.3g-h-C reliability findings, 2-of-2 quorum on MiniMax failure, evaluator_loss on split; anchor=60d061e (v6)

Parent = fa7464b (Phase 2 cold probe halt anchor). New HEAD after this commit.

§1.4 Scope guards

• Manifest v6 anchor 60d061e remains canonical — amendment updates the authoritative pre-reg but does NOT re-emit v6 under new anchor
• All other v6 §11 frozen paths untouched (runner.ts, judge-runner.ts, failure-mode-judge.ts, health-check.ts, litellm-config.yaml)
• Kimi alias stays in litellm-config (orphan, zero impact)
• Pre-flight probe artefacts (§1.3 cold probes + halt anchor fa7464b) remain intact as audit record

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§2 N=400 execution resume (same as prior Phase 2 brief with amendments)

All prior Phase 2 brief sections (benchmarks/briefs/2026-04-24-cc1-manifest-v6-phase2-n400-execution-brief.md) remain authoritative EXCEPT:

§2.1 Amendments to original Phase 2 brief

1. §1.3 pre-flight probes: SKIP (already executed, MiniMax 3/3 passed, Kimi probe now moot under Option B)
2. §2.3 per-instance failover: SUPERSEDED by §5.2.1 amendment above. New per-instance logic:
   • Parallel primary judges: Opus + GPT + MiniMax
   • MiniMax failure (API error, parse fail, timeout after 3 retries) → NO Kimi call. Instead:
     • If Opus and GPT verdicts agree → use their consensus as majority verdict
     • If Opus and GPT verdicts disagree → mark judge_ensemble_fail: true (evaluator_loss) AND evaluator_loss_reason: "minimax_failed_opus_gpt_split", exclude from H1
   • If MiniMax succeeds but Opus or GPT fail → standard runner logic applies (tie-break or evaluator_loss per existing policy)
3. §2.4 logging: remove minimax_backup_triggered, kimi_* fields. Add:
   • minimax_failed: true|false
   • minimax_failure_reason (api_error|parse_fail|timeout)
   • evaluator_loss_reason (if applicable)
4. §2.5 halt triggers: remove backup activation rate trigger. Retain:
   • Budget halt at $28
   • evaluator_loss rate >5% → pause + PM adjudication (was 2% ensemble_fail, now looser because 2-of-2 quorum handles most cases)
   • MiniMax parse <90% cumulative → pause + PM flag

§2.2 Budget adjustment

• Kimi pre-flight probe actual: ~$0.05 (2/3 calls)
• MiniMax pre-flight probe actual: ~$0.03 (3/3 calls)
• Combined pre-flight spent: ~$0.08
• Remaining Phase 2 budget: $30 - $0.08 = $29.92
• Projected N=400 cost: ~$20-25 (MiniMax only; no Kimi activation)
• Margin: ~$5 comfort

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§3 Execution sequence (post-amendment commit)

1. Commit §5.2 amendment per §1.3 above (single commit, updates MD + YAML twin)
2. Emit halt ping confirming amendment landed + new HEAD
3. Await PM-RATIFY-V6-5-2-CLARIFICATION (brief PM gate — low-friction, expect immediate ACCEPT)
4. On ratification: kick N=400 execution per amended Phase 2 brief
5. Halt on PM-RATIFY-V6-N400-COMPLETE as originally specified

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§4 Halt ping format (amendment commit only)

Emit after §5.2 amendment commit:

• amendment_verdict: LANDED
• amendment_anchor: <full sha>
• v6_manifest_md_sha_updated: <new sha>
• v6_manifest_yaml_sha_updated: <new sha>
• v6_anchor_canonical: 60d061e (unchanged)
• parent_commit: fa7464b (Phase 2 cold probe halt)
• next_step_request: PM-RATIFY-V6-5-2-CLARIFICATION
• cc1_state: HALTED

PM ratifies amendment (expect immediate ACCEPT), then CC-1 resumes Phase 2 N=400 kick.

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§5 Halt ping format (N=400 completion)

Per original Phase 2 brief §4, with field amendments:

• Replace minimax_backup_triggered_count with minimax_failed_count
• Replace kimi_backup_success_count with N/A (remove)
• Replace judge_ensemble_fail_count with evaluator_loss_count
• Add evaluator_loss_reasons_breakdown: { minimax_failed_opus_gpt_split, other }

All other fields (H1 block, secondary cells, budget, wall-clock) unchanged.

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§6 Task #29 trace

• §2.2 N=400 execution: AUTHORIZED post-§5.2 amendment
• §5.2 amendment:
• PM-RATIFY-V6-5-2-CLARIFICATION:
• PM-RATIFY-V6-N400-COMPLETE: pending Phase 2 N=400 completion

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§7 Authorized by

PM Marko Marković, 2026-04-24 evening, PM-ADJUDICATE-V6-PHASE2-BLOCKERS adjudication verbatim (Option B ACCEPT).

CC-1 may begin amendment commit immediately. N=400 kick waits PM-RATIFY-V6-5-2-CLARIFICATION.