1.9 KiB
§1.3h Judge Swap Re-Probe — Exit Memo
Date: 2026-04-24 Target: PM-RATIFY-JUDGE-SWAP-REPROBE Parent: 8a2f0e6
Verdict: INCONCLUSIVE_BUT_OPERATIONAL_SIGNAL
Split pool n=7 (use-all-available per PM amendment §1.3H OPTION 1). All 7 splits are Opus=correct / GPT=incorrect → split-only κ is structurally degenerate; p_opus/p_gpt balance is the discriminating signal.
Novel finding (supersedes §1.3g heuristic)
| Cand | p_opus | p_gpt | Profile | κ_agg_cons (n=27) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek | 40% | 60% | Independent | 0.709 (only PASS) |
| Kimi | 80% | 20% | Opus-lenient | 0.576 |
| MiniMax | 86% | 14% | Opus-lenient | 0.456 |
| Zhipu | 0% | 100% | GPT-echo | 0.444 |
§1.3g κ=1.0 tie was selection bias toward unanimous cases. §1.3h exposes Zhipu as GPT clone on splits (low ensemble value); DeepSeek as only balanced independent judge.
Recommendation
Primary: DEEPSEEK (with max_tokens=2048 bump to address split-parse 71%)
Backup: ZHIPU (independence compromise if DeepSeek parse unresolved)
A 3-judge ensemble needs independent calibration; Zhipu's 100% GPT-lock-step violates this. Parse risk is mitigable (token ceiling); echo risk is structural.
MiniMax routing
direct_failed_fell_back_openrouter. api.minimaxi.com and api.minimax.chat v2 rejected MINIMAX_GROUP_ID + Bearer. OpenRouter fallback 7/7. Manifest v6 must route MiniMax via OpenRouter; direct is not viable without further account research.
Cost / wall-clock
- 28 split calls + 4 MiniMax direct-discovery attempts
- Cost: ~$0.30 (cap $1.50)
- Wall-clock: ~9 min (14:09-14:18 UTC)
PM next step
Adjudicate: (A) DeepSeek-boosted primary + Zhipu backup, (B) Zhipu primary + DeepSeek-boosted backup (operational-first), (C) DeepSeek mini-confirmation probe with bumped max_tokens before v6 emission. cc1_state: HALTED.