Files
waggle-os/benchmarks/preregistration/manifest-v8.2-final.md
Oleg Maslov 0c3e2ead3b
Some checks failed
Installer Smoke / installer-smoke (push) Has been cancelled
moving
2026-09-02 10:10:29 +02:00

4.4 KiB
Raw Blame History

Manifest v8.2 — Final Scope Amendment (supersedes v8.0 and v8.1)

Manifest version: v8.2.0-preregistration (final scope) Preregistered date: 2026-06-04 Authority: PM (Marko Marković) Supersedes: manifest-v8-gaia2-preregistration.md (v8.0.0) and manifest-v8.1-multi-benchmark.md (v8.1.0) for scope section only. All GAIA 2 methodology in v8.0.0 §1§9 remains intact and unmodified.


0. Amendment rationale

v8.1.0 added BEAM (Track A), LongMemEval-V2 (Track C), and Terminal-Bench 2.0 (Track D). This amendment makes two scope changes:

  1. LongMemEval-V2 dropped — deferred to v9. No public runner, 25 M+ token haystacks, and web-agent trajectory tooling are all pre-stable. Attempting V2 in v8 would block the release milestone without scientific payoff. The V1 benchmark is fully runnable today (harness already recognises longmemeval), and its knowledge-update split directly tests the same substrate claim.

  2. LongMemEval V1 added as Track A0 — becomes the fastest path to a new data point. 500 questions, S-variant (115 K tokens/question), zero new harness work required. Hard budget cap $20. Runs before BEAM.


1. Final four-track scope

Track Benchmark Primary claim surface Status Budget hard halt
A0 LongMemEval V1 Conversational memory — knowledge-update split Runnable now $20
A BEAM Contradiction resolution (unsolved category) Runnable now $50
B GAIA 2 / ARE Ambiguity + Adaptability stateful tasks Blocked — SIGALRM fix $80 (per v8.0)
D Terminal-Bench 2.0 Capability floor / positioning Async submission $0

LME-V2 (former Track C) is out of v8 scope. It is preregistered as a v9 track with no methodology commitments in this document.


2. Execution order

A0 (LongMemEval V1)   ← first: fastest path, harness already knows 'longmemeval'
        ↓
A  (BEAM)             ← second: pip install + download, low adapter effort
        ↓
B  (GAIA 2)           ← third: blocked on SIGALRM fix; starts in parallel after fix
D  (Terminal-Bench)   ← async: submit existing scaffold any time, not gating release

Rationale for A0-first ordering: the harness longmemeval dataset identifier is already wired; the canonical builder (build-longmemeval-canonical.ts) produces a drop-in JSONL; the S-variant is 500 questions at manageable cost. A0 provides an independent memory result to strengthen the central claim before BEAM runs.


3. Central scientific claim (unchanged from v8.1)

Substrate (I/P/B hive-mind) > subject model selection.

Demonstrated across three evaluation surfaces:

  • Conversational memory — LongMemEval V1, knowledge-update split (Track A0)
  • Contradiction resolution — BEAM CR category (Track A), the category that remains unsolved for all subject models at the time of preregistration
  • Stateful agent tasks — GAIA 2 Ambiguity + Adaptability splits (Track B)

Terminal-Bench 2.0 (Track D) provides positioning data only. It is not part of the scientific claim and will not be cited as evidence for the substrate > subject hypothesis.


4. Unchanged elements from v8.0.0

  • All GAIA 2 methodology (§1§9 of manifest-v8-gaia2-preregistration.md) is unmodified.
  • Track B $80 hard budget halt is unchanged.
  • Contradiction resolution as primary BEAM focus is unchanged.
  • The I/P/B frame taxonomy (I = Identity, P = Procedural, B = Belief/Contradiction) is unchanged.

5. LME-V2 deferral note (v9 placeholder)

LongMemEval-V2 (web-agent trajectory haystacks, multimodal, 25 M+ token context) is deferred to v9. No methodology is preregistered here. A v9 amendment will cover: trajectory Insert/Query API, multimodal evidence handling, and comparison to V1 baseline.


6. Budget summary

Track Hard halt Notes
A0 — LongMemEval V1 $20 S-variant only (500 questions)
A — BEAM $50 128 K chat-size default
B — GAIA 2 $80 Per v8.0.0 methodology
D — Terminal-Bench $0 Submit only
Total exposure $150 Sequential gating limits concurrent spend

7. Prior anchors

  • benchmarks/preregistration/manifest-v8-gaia2-preregistration.md — v8.0.0 base
  • benchmarks/preregistration/manifest-v8.1-multi-benchmark.md — v8.1.0 amendment
  • This document (v8.2.0) supersedes both for scope; neither for methodology.