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waggle-os/gepa-phase-5/cost-probe-2026-04-29-summary.md
Oleg Maslov 0c3e2ead3b
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Phase 5 §0.3 Cost Probe Summary

Date: 2026-04-29T11:19:11.627Z Pricing snapshot: 2026-04-29 Branch: phase-5-deployment-v2 Endpoint: http://localhost:4000 (LiteLLM proxy, matches Faza 1 runner pattern)

Per-variant statistics

Variant Model alias OK Errors p50 p95 max mean total
claude::gen1-v1 claude-opus-4-7 5 0 $0.0239 $0.0432 $0.0432 $0.0250 $0.1251
qwen-thinking::gen1-v1 qwen3.6-35b-a3b-via-dashscope-direct 5 0 $0.0064 $0.0176 $0.0176 $0.0075 $0.0377

Canary cost ceiling (per brief §5.4)

Formula: canary_cost_p95_ceiling = 740 requests × max(p95) × 1.2 (buffer)

max(p95) = $0.0432 canary_cost_p95_ceiling = 740 × $0.0432 × 1.2 = $38.34

Verdict

HARD-CAP-EXCEED — ceiling $38.34 > hard cap $25.

Probe spend (this script)

Total: $0.1628 Brief §5.4 probe budget: $0.30-$0.50.

JSONL anchor

Per-request rows: gepa-phase-5/cost-probe-2026-04-29.jsonl