204 lines
11 KiB
Markdown
204 lines
11 KiB
Markdown
# CC-1 Brief — §1.3h Judge Swap Stratified Discriminating Re-Probe
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**Date**: 2026-04-24 (evening, post-§1.3g)
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**Status**: §1.3h sub-gate, PM-adjudicated Path 2 (stratified re-probe) over Path 1 (accept-by-operational-criteria)
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**Authorized by**: Marko Marković (2026-04-24, "ostalo se slazem pravi prompt" + MINIMAX_GROUP_ID added to .env)
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**Predecessor**: §1.3g MULTI_PASS sa methodological caveat — κ=1.0000 tie across all 4 candidates na first-4-per-cell sample biased toward unanimous cases (split_consensus_excluded=0/20 vs full-set split rate 7%). Operational ranking (Zhipu > DeepSeek > MiniMax > Kimi) heuristic ne diskriminativan empirical signal.
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**PM**: claude-opus-4-7 (Cowork)
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---
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## §0 Cilj re-probe-a
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Diskriminisati 4 judge candidate-a na **challenging cases gde Opus ≠ GPT** (split consensus). Unanimous cases daju κ=1.0 by construction — nisu informativni. Split cases su gde stvarno vidimo judge character + calibration quality + independence from reference judges.
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Output: empirical κ ranking based on discriminating signal, plus operational metrics (parse rate, latency, routing) na svežem challenging sample.
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---
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## §1 Path re-prioritization summary
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§1.3g confirmed: all 4 candidates pass κ ≥ 0.70 threshold. §1.3h goal:
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- Primary: rank candidates on SPLIT-CASE κ (discriminating)
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- Secondary: re-measure parse rate + latency + routing na split cases (complexity may degrade metrics vs unanimous)
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- Tertiary: sanity-check full 40-instance aggregate κ (should match or slightly exceed original if sample is representative)
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**Post-§1.3h verdict scenarios**:
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- **SPLIT_DISCRIMINATING**: κ values spread across candidates on splits → empirical ranking determines primary + backup
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- **STILL_ALL_PASS**: all candidates κ ≥ 0.70 on splits too → operational secondary ranking legitimately tie-breaks
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- **PARTIAL_FAIL**: some candidates κ < 0.70 on splits → subset passes, clean cut
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- **ALL_FAIL_ON_SPLITS**: no candidate ≥ 0.70 on splits → swap path CLOSED, return to Branch B or Google ticket wait
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---
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## §2 Sample construction (40 instances, stratified)
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### §2.1 Preserved unanimous subset (20 instances)
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**Reuse existing §1.3g `sample-instances.jsonl`** (SHA `f4770fec...`). 20 instances gde Opus = GPT = Gemini. No need to re-select. For these, candidates already have verdicts from §1.3g — **reuse those verdicts, do NOT re-execute calls on unanimous subset**. Existing data is idempotent and counted in aggregate.
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### §2.2 NEW split-cases subset (20 instances)
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Select 20 instances iz full κ calibration set-a (the one that produced κ=0.7458 three-way; should be N≈100-300 range) gde **Opus verdict ≠ GPT verdict**. Full-set split rate = 7% per §1.3g memo; if full κ set = 286 instances, expected splits ≈ 20 (exactly our target), meaning selection may effectively be "all available splits".
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Selection priority:
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1. Stratified across cells (no-context, retrieval, full-context, oracle-context, agentic) — prefer balanced representation
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2. If all-available-splits count < 20: use all, document shortage, proceed with smaller sample (minimum 12 for meaningful discrimination)
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3. If all-available-splits count > 20: stratified random selection with `seed=20260424` for reproducibility
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**Saving the split sample**: `benchmarks/probes/judge-swap-validation/split-cases-sample.jsonl` with fields: `instance_id`, `cell`, `opus_verdict`, `gpt_verdict`, `gemini_verdict` (if present in original κ set — reference only, NOT used as consensus).
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**Critical note on consensus definition for split cases**:
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On splits, Opus+GPT consensus doesn't exist. Use **dual reference measurement**:
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- `agreement_vs_opus`: candidate == Opus verdict (0 or 1 per instance)
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- `agreement_vs_gpt`: candidate == GPT verdict (0 or 1 per instance)
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- Per candidate compute: `p_opus = agreement_vs_opus_count / split_n`, `p_gpt = agreement_vs_gpt_count / split_n`
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- Well-calibrated judge ≈ 50/50 split (independent judgment; doesn't mimic either reference)
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- Biased judge shows > 70/30 systematic lean (correlated with one reference style; less ideal for ensemble)
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- Compute κ per candidate vs Opus alone AND vs GPT alone separately; take min(κ_vs_opus, κ_vs_gpt) as conservative split-case κ
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---
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## §3 MiniMax direct routing unblock
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Marko confirmed: `MINIMAX_GROUP_ID` added to `D:\Projects\waggle-os\.env` between §1.3g and §1.3h sessions.
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CC-1 sanity check on pre-flight:
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- Verify `MINIMAX_GROUP_ID` env var resolves to non-empty string
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- First MiniMax call routes direct (api.minimaxi.com or api.minimax.chat) with GroupId header/query param per MiniMax docs
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- If direct still fails: fall back to openrouter as in §1.3g, document reason, continue (don't block probe on MiniMax routing issue — unanimous subset already has openrouter-routed MiniMax verdicts)
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---
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## §4 Execution
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### §4.1 Call pattern
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- Per NEW split instance: 4 API calls (Kimi + MiniMax + DeepSeek + Zhipu)
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- Total NEW API calls: 4 × 20 = 80
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- UNANIMOUS verdicts reused, zero new API calls for that subset
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- Sequential OK
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- Deterministic: `temperature=0.0`, matched `max_tokens`
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- Retries: up to 3 on transient errors
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- Kimi `max_tokens=4096` carry-over from §1.3g (addressed parse issues there)
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### §4.2 Metrics per candidate
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Compute on NEW split subset (20 instances):
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- `parse_success`: <int>/20
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- `agreement_vs_opus_count`: <int>/valid
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- `agreement_vs_gpt_count`: <int>/valid
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- `p_opus`, `p_gpt`: percentages
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- `kappa_vs_opus`: Cohen's κ candidate-vs-Opus
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- `kappa_vs_gpt`: Cohen's κ candidate-vs-GPT
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- `kappa_conservative`: min(kappa_vs_opus, kappa_vs_gpt)
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- `latency_p50_split`: median latency on split cases
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- `latency_p95_split`: p95 latency on split cases (for N=400 cost projection)
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Compute on AGGREGATE 40 (unanimous + split):
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- `kappa_aggregate_vs_consensus`: κ on aggregated sample treating unanimous consensus as reference and split cases as per §2.2 dual reference with conservative min
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- This combines known-high unanimous κ with discriminating split κ for holistic view
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### §4.3 Per-candidate verdict (on split subset)
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- κ_conservative ≥ 0.70 → PASS
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- 0.60 ≤ κ_conservative < 0.70 → BORDERLINE
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- κ_conservative < 0.60 → FAIL
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### §4.4 Aggregate verdict
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- **SPLIT_DISCRIMINATING**: spread in κ_conservative across candidates ≥ 0.15 (meaningful differentiation)
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- **STILL_ALL_PASS**: all 4 κ_conservative ≥ 0.70, spread < 0.15 (tie — operational criteria determine rank)
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- **PARTIAL_FAIL**: 1-3 candidates κ_conservative < 0.70 (subset passes, natural cut)
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- **ALL_FAIL_ON_SPLITS**: 0 candidates κ_conservative ≥ 0.70 (swap path CLOSED)
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- **INCONCLUSIVE**: parse rate < 80% on any candidate on splits; OR valid split sample size < 12 after selection
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---
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## §5 Scope guards
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- Manifest v5 anchor `fc16925` immutable. NO v6 emission.
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- HEAD `373516c` + 9 commits (including `8a2f0e6` §1.3g anchor) intact. No drift.
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- §11 frozen paths untouched (runner, judge-runner, failure-mode-judge, health-check, litellm-config.yaml).
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- No new LiteLLM aliases; probe bypasses proxy.
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- Reuse existing Opus/GPT verdicts from full κ calibration set; NO new Opus/GPT calls.
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- Modifications limited to `benchmarks/probes/judge-swap-validation/` (existing probe folder from §1.3g).
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---
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## §6 Deliverables
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Commit na `feature/c3-v3-wrapper`:
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1. `benchmarks/probes/judge-swap-validation/split-cases-sample.jsonl` — 20 new split-case instances with instance_id, cell, Opus verdict, GPT verdict, Gemini reference
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2. `benchmarks/probes/judge-swap-validation/kimi-split-responses.jsonl` — 20 raw + parsed verdicts
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3. `benchmarks/probes/judge-swap-validation/minimax-split-responses.jsonl` — 20 raw + parsed verdicts
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4. `benchmarks/probes/judge-swap-validation/deepseek-split-responses.jsonl` — 20 raw + parsed verdicts
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5. `benchmarks/probes/judge-swap-validation/zhipu-split-responses.jsonl` — 20 raw + parsed verdicts
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6. `benchmarks/probes/judge-swap-validation/kappa-split-analysis.md` — per-candidate split κ matrix (κ_vs_opus, κ_vs_gpt, κ_conservative, p_opus, p_gpt balance analysis) + aggregate κ (40) + ranking by κ_conservative descending + per-candidate split verdict
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7. `benchmarks/probes/judge-swap-validation/reprobe-memo.md` — ≤250 words, aggregate verdict (SPLIT_DISCRIMINATING / STILL_ALL_PASS / PARTIAL_FAIL / ALL_FAIL_ON_SPLITS / INCONCLUSIVE), final recommended primary + backup with reasoning, actual cost, wall-clock, MiniMax routing resolution (direct / openrouter / failed-back)
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Existing §1.3g artefacts (`probe-script.py`, `sample-instances.jsonl`, 4× responses, `kappa-analysis.md`, `validation-memo.md`) remain unchanged. New artefacts are additive.
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Anchor commit: `[probe] judge swap stratified reprobe on split cases - <aggregate_verdict>`. Parent = `8a2f0e6` (§1.3g).
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---
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## §7 Budget i halt criteria
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- **Budget cap**: $3 (realno ~$1.50-2.50 expected: 80 calls × average $0.02)
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- **Halt @ $5**: full escalation
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- **Per-call timeout**: 60s (Kimi historical 32s; allow headroom)
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- **Total wall-clock cap**: 60 min (setup + 80 calls + dual-κ compute + memo)
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---
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## §8 Halt ping format
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Emit at completion:
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- `aggregate_verdict: SPLIT_DISCRIMINATING | STILL_ALL_PASS | PARTIAL_FAIL | ALL_FAIL_ON_SPLITS | INCONCLUSIVE`
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- Per-candidate block (all 4):
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`<candidate>_parse_success: <int>/20`
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`<candidate>_kappa_vs_opus: <float>`
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`<candidate>_kappa_vs_gpt: <float>`
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`<candidate>_kappa_conservative: <float>`
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`<candidate>_p_opus: <float>`
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`<candidate>_p_gpt: <float>`
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`<candidate>_latency_p50_split: <int>s`
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`<candidate>_latency_p95_split: <int>s`
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`<candidate>_routing_actual: direct | openrouter`
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`<candidate>_split_verdict: PASS | BORDERLINE | FAIL`
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- `aggregate_kappa_40: { zhipu, deepseek, minimax, kimi }` (per candidate on combined 40)
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- `ranking_by_kappa_conservative_desc: ordered list`
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- `split_cases_selected: <int>/20` (actual selection count, may be < 20 if pool small)
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- `recommended_primary: KIMI|MINIMAX|DEEPSEEK|ZHIPU|NONE`
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- `recommended_backup: KIMI|MINIMAX|DEEPSEEK|ZHIPU|NONE`
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- `minimax_routing_resolution: direct_successful | direct_failed_fell_back | openrouter_only`
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- `anchor_commit: <full sha>`
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- `artefact_shas: { split-sample, 4× split-responses, kappa-split-analysis, reprobe-memo }`
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- `wall_clock: <duration>`
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- `cost_actual: $<actual>` vs $3 cap
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- `next_step_request: PM-RATIFY-JUDGE-SWAP-REPROBE`
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- `cc1_state: HALTED`
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CC-1 ne self-advances. Ne emituje manifest v6. Čeka PM ratifikaciju.
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---
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## §9 Task #29 trace update (post-reprobe)
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- §1.1 ✓ §1.2 ✓ §1.3b IN_SCOPE ✓ §1.3c PASS ✓ §1.3e strict hold ✓ §1.3f INFEASIBLE ✓ §1.3g MULTI_PASS ✓ §1.3h <verdict>
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- Post-§1.3h:
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- If SPLIT_DISCRIMINATING / PARTIAL_FAIL / STILL_ALL_PASS → PM emit manifest v6 swap proposal brief sa data-driven primary + backup
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- If ALL_FAIL_ON_SPLITS → swap path CLOSED; return to Google ticket waiting or Branch B prep
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- If INCONCLUSIVE → PM adjudicates: retry with larger sample, or alternate methodology
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---
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## §10 Authorized by
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PM Marko Marković, 2026-04-24 evening. Verbatim: "ostalo se slazem pravi prompt". MINIMAX_GROUP_ID added to .env between sessions.
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CC-1 may begin immediately — all prereqs in place (direct keys, GroupId, prior §1.3g artefacts on disk, gcloud tooling retained from §1.3f as permanent operational asset).
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