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docs/decisions/2026-04-29-phase-5-scope-LOCKED.md

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+# LOCKED Decision — Phase 5 Deployment Scope
+
+**Date:** 2026-04-29
+**Status:** LOCKED
+**Author:** PM
+**Ratified by:** Marko ("da", 2026-04-29)
+**Supersedes:** none — first formal Phase 5 scope lock
+**Binds:** Phase 5 brief authoring (PM-side, next 4-5 dana wall-clock)
+
+---
+
+## §1 — Decision
+
+Phase 5 deployment obuhvata **dva GEPA-evolved variants**:
+
+1. `claude::gen1-v1` — AUTHORIZED (combined N=13 = 100% Pass II, 0pp held-out gap)
+2. `qwen-thinking::gen1-v1` — AUTHORIZED (Phase 4.5 mechanism CONFIRMED out-of-distribution: retrieval 2.231 = 96% Opus parity, +12.5pp quality, 0pp held-out gap)
+
+`gpt::gen1-v2` je **WITHHELD** iz Phase 5; ulazi u Faza 2 N=16 re-validacioni run pre bilo kakve deploy odluke.
+
+---
+
+## §2 — Rationale (sazeto)
+
+§F.1 (≥+5pp held-out) prosli su sva tri kandidata. §F.5 cond_2 (overfitting bound ±15pp) prosli su samo claude (0pp) i qwen-thinking (0pp); gpt FAIL sa 20pp gap (in-sample +25pp -> held-out +5pp). To znaci da je gpt rezultat selection-biased na in-sample distribuciji i da bi deployment na inflated effect-size estimatu bio metodoloska greska. Held-out validation methodology je upravo i autorizovana da uhvati ovakve slucajeve — radi kako je dizajnirana.
+
+Cuvanje pre-registration discipline kroz 11 amendments imalo bi smisla samo ako rezultate primenjujemo konzistentno: bind kada trigger fire na mehanizmu, ne kada je trigger detection pod selection bias-om. Phase 5 zato deploy-uje samo robustno validirane variante.
+
+---
+
+## §3 — Strategic implications
+
+**KVARK enterprise pitch anchor** sada dobija oba primary use case scientific support:
+- Claude flagship-class continuity (claude::gen1-v1)
+- On-prem Qwen 35B = Opus-class out-of-distribution (qwen-thinking::gen1-v1, 96% Opus retrieval parity)
+
+**arxiv §5 evidence** je publishable: cross-family generalization sa transparentnom selection bias scoping discussion (gpt) kao methodology demonstration, ne failure disclosure.
+
+**Faza 2 sprint planning** dobija jasan primary scope: gpt::gen1-v2 N=16 re-validacija sa selection bias resolution kao explicit cilj.
+
+---
+
+## §4 — Phase 5 brief delivery commitments (PM-side)
+
+PM (ja) ce drafting Phase 5 brief obuhvatiti:
+
+1. **Deployment plan** — kako se claude::gen1-v1 i qwen-thinking::gen1-v1 apply-uju u repo, koja je rollback procedura, koji canary uslov pre full enable
+2. **Monitoring infrastructure** — koje metrike se prate (Pass II, retrieval engagement, latency, cost), threshold alerts, observation window
+3. **Pre-registered exit criteria** — kada Phase 5 prelazi u "production-stable" status, kada eskalira u rollback
+4. **Cost projection** — bind na real model pricing × max_tokens × probe-validated per-instance cost (per feedback_cost_projection_real_anchoring rule)
+5. **Cross-stream dependencies** — Landing v2 refinement trigger (Proof Card 1 swap), arxiv §5 timing, KVARK pitch readiness
+
+**ETA brief land:** 4-5 dana wall-clock from 2026-04-29 evening start.
+
+**Trigger condition za actual deployment kick-off:** Marko ratifikacija drafted brief-a + canary readiness verifikacija.
+
+---
+
+## §5 — Audit trail anchors
+
+- Faza 1 closure decision memo: `decisions/2026-04-29-gepa-faza1-results.md` (568 linija)
+- Faza 1 acceptance verdicts: §F.1-F.5 + cond_2 dokumentovani u closure memo §B-C
+- Cumulative Faza 1 spend: $43.49 / $115 cap (headroom $71.51 za Faza 2)
+- Memory entries: `project_gepa_faza1_closed_2026_04_29` + `project_sprint_2026_04_28_master`
+- Handoff: `sessions/2026-04-29-handoff-faza1-closed-landing-parked.md`
+
+---
+
+**End of LOCKED decision.**