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benchmarks/probes/vertex-batch-eligibility/eligibility-memo.md

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+# Vertex AI Batch Eligibility Probe — gemini-3.1-pro-preview
+
+**Date:** 2026-04-24 · **Target:** PM-RATIFY-VERTEX-BATCH-ELIGIBILITY gate · **Budget actual:** <$0.02 (control job only).
+
+## Verdict: **INFEASIBLE**
+
+`publishers/google/models/gemini-3.1-pro-preview` exists in the Vertex
+publisher catalog (REST `GET /v1/publishers/google/models/gemini-3.1-pro-
+preview` with `X-Goog-User-Project: gen-lang-client-0674908699` → **HTTP
+200**) but is **NOT** registered for Batch Prediction. SDK
+`vertexai.batch_prediction.BatchPredictionJob.submit(source_model=…)`
+returns `NotFound: 404 The PublisherModel gemini-3.1-pro-preview does not
+exist.` on both bare name and fully-qualified forms.
+
+## Control proof (plumbing OK)
+
+Identical SDK path with `source_model="gemini-2.5-flash"` submitted
+successfully: `projects/565729498549/locations/us-central1/
+batchPredictionJobs/7779966002640453632` (state=PENDING). Vertex Batch
+maintains a batch-eligibility registry distinct from the publisher
+catalog; Gemini 3.1 Pro Preview is absent from the former.
+
+## SDK versions (audit)
+
+`google-cloud-aiplatform 1.148.1`, `google-cloud-storage 3.10.1`,
+Python 3.11.9.
+
+## Consequence
+
+Branch A (§1.3e fallback) closed. Stage 3 re-kick remains gated on
+Google quota ticket. Re-probe when Google adds 3.1 Pro Preview to batch
+registry; monitor Vertex release notes.