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Pilot Verdict — FAIL on All 3 Hypotheses, Branch B Recommended

Date: 2026-04-26 Author: PM Source: populated from pre-built decisions/2026-04-26-pilot-decision-template.md Branch B (conditional authorization) Pilot ID: agentic-knowledge-work-pilot-2026-04-26 Pilot completion: 2026-04-26T02:04Z Audit chain (verbatim):

amendment_v2_doc_sha256: 1ab5082ff773538a26b3c3294f7fbee4e30063a8d994bdb3753bdc9dd6d6cd99
amendment_v1_doc_sha256: 3946d3e00fbb1996fb7e63096ecef51abf1e209e5ff166fd0d8758e9a3a14aad
cc1_brief_sha256: 9805adae478333178d36d71b88795afc37f8fb543c2ebccaecb7b01faf06afee
judge_rubric_sha256: 2e24826eb75e92ef1e64055bb2c632eec64ded8fedf7d5b6897ccaec9ffff2eb
head_sha: b7e19c557fdbc42f2d0a3c3213176aa4d790f7a2
manifest_anchor: pilot-2026-04-26-v1

§1 — Verdict

Pilot FAIL on all 3 pre-registered hypotheses (H2 1/3, H3 0/3, H4 0/3, threshold ≥ 2/3). No critical failures (no cell scored < 2.0).

Hypothesis	Required	Achieved	Verdict
H2 — Opus multiplier (B−A ≥ +0.30)	≥ 2 of 3 tasks	1 of 3 (Task 1 only)	FAIL
H3 — Qwen multiplier (D−C ≥ +0.30)	≥ 2 of 3 tasks	0 of 3	FAIL
H4 — Sovereignty bridge (D ≥ A)	≥ 2 of 3 tasks	0 of 3	FAIL

Strict pre-registered reading: pilot fails. By cc1-brief.md §11 + amendment v2 §7 disposition, this triggers go/no-go memo for full N=400 multiplier benchmark.

Anti-pattern #4 honored: thresholds did not shift. Result is what it is.

§2 — Per-task data (verbatim from pilot-summary.json)

Task 1 — Strategic Synthesis (7 docs)

Cell	Mode	trio_mean	Δ vs A
A — Opus solo	single-shot	4.611	—
B — Opus + harness	multi-step	4.944	+0.333 (PASS)
C — Qwen solo	single-shot	4.583	-0.028
D — Qwen + harness	multi-step	4.389	-0.222

H2 = +0.333 PASS. H3 = -0.194 FAIL. H4 = -0.222 FAIL.

Note: Cell C (Qwen solo) trio_mean 4.583 is competitive with Cell A (Opus solo) 4.611 — within 0.028 Likert. Sovereign model demonstrates synthesis capability without harness when full context available.

Task 2 — Cross-thread Coordination (4 threads)

Cell	Mode	trio_mean	Δ vs A
A — Opus solo	single-shot	4.944	—
B — Opus + harness	multi-step	5.000	+0.056
C — Qwen solo	single-shot	4.667	-0.278
D — Qwen + harness	multi-step	3.944	-1.000

H2 = +0.056 FAIL (marginal). H3 = -0.722 FAIL. H4 = -1.000 FAIL.

Note: Cell A scored 4.944 (near-ceiling). Cell B's 5.000 hits the rubric ceiling — no room to demonstrate harness multiplier above this. Judge ceiling effect likely confounded H2 reading on Task 2. Cell B also hit loop_exhausted=true (5-step MAX_STEPS ceiling reached, force-finalized).

Task 3 — Decision Support (3 memos)

Cell	Mode	trio_mean	Δ vs A
A — Opus solo	single-shot	4.944	—
B — Opus + harness	multi-step	4.889	-0.056
C — Qwen solo	single-shot	4.889	-0.056
D — Qwen + harness	multi-step	4.556	-0.389

H2 = -0.056 FAIL (marginal reverse). H3 = -0.333 FAIL. H4 = -0.389 FAIL.

Note: Cell A again scored 4.944 (near-ceiling). Cell B loop_exhausted=true (4 steps + 3 retrievals before force-finalize). Same judge ceiling + harness exhaustion pattern as Task 2.

§3 — Failure mode analysis (per pilot-decision-template.md §3 sub-branches)

The pilot fails are not uniformly real signal. Three distinct failure modes contribute:

3.1 — H2 (Opus multiplier) — partial artifact, partial signal

Artifact contributors:

Judge ceiling effect on Tasks 2+3: Cell A scored 4.944 (within 0.06 Likert of perfect 5.0). Cell B has no measurable headroom for "improvement"; rubric maxes out.
Cell B harness exhaustion on Tasks 2+3: loop_exhausted=true for both. 5-step MAX_STEPS ceiling was tight for longer-context tasks (Task 2 = 4 threads × 4 months, Task 3 = 3 lengthy memos with conflict resolution). Force-finalized output likely suboptimal vs. unrushed multi-step.

Real signal contributor:

On Task 1 (where neither artifact applied — Cell A at 4.611 had room for B to lift, and Cell B finished in 3 steps without exhaustion), H2 PASS at +0.333.

Interpretation: H2 is plausibly genuine PASS for Opus + harness on synthesis-class tasks when harness design (MAX_STEPS) and rubric design (ceiling) accommodate task complexity. Tasks 2+3 H2 reads as design artifact more than capability evidence.

3.2 — H3 (Qwen multiplier) — real signal across all 3 tasks

D − C deltas: -0.194 (T1), -0.722 (T2), -0.333 (T3).

Pattern is consistent across 3 different task structures (synthesis, coordination, decision support). Qwen + harness performs worse than Qwen + full-context on every task type.

loop_exhausted=false on all 3 Cell D runs (2-4 steps used of 5 available). Qwen finalized within step budget; this is not a force-finalize artifact. Reasoning headroom intact (max_tokens=16000 with thinking=on, +1782 to +3784 reasoning tokens vs smoke baseline).

Interpretation: harness design is not generic across model classes. The same multi-step retrieval-augmented self-prompting pattern that lifts Opus actively hurts Qwen. Hypothesis (Marko's reading from earlier observation): harness templates may be authored in a verbose multi-step narrative style that Opus utilizes natively but that Qwen 35B-A3B fragments around. Token economics support this — Cell D uses more reasoning tokens than Cell C and produces worse output, indicating reasoning is consumed on harness orientation rather than task progress.

3.3 — H4 (Sovereignty bridge) — real signal, dominantly driven by H3 failure

D vs A deltas: -0.222 (T1), -1.000 (T2), -0.389 (T3).

If Qwen + harness hurts Qwen (H3 FAIL real), and Opus solo is at near-ceiling on Tasks 2+3, then D < A is structurally guaranteed. H4 cannot pass while H3 fails on harness design.

Interpretation: sovereignty bridge claim "Qwen + harness reaches Opus level" is invalidated. However, Cell C vs Cell A comparison (Qwen solo vs Opus solo, both single-shot full-context) shows much smaller gap: 4.583 vs 4.611 (T1), 4.667 vs 4.944 (T2), 4.889 vs 4.944 (T3). Qwen solo is within 0.30 Likert of Opus solo on all 3 tasks — substantial evidence that sovereign model is capable on synthesis tasks without harness.

The corrected sovereignty narrative is: "use Qwen with full context for sovereign deployment of synthesis tasks; harness is currently optimized for frontier proprietary models". This is honest, defensible, and product-actionable.

3.4 — Critical failures: NONE

No cell scored < 2.0 on majority of judges. Lowest cell: task-2/D at 3.944 (still solid 'adequate' range). System functioned as designed; pilot results are interpretable.

§4 — Recommendation: Branch B (conditional authorization with 3 prerequisites)

Strict pre-registered reading triggers Branch C (halt + retrieval V2 first). However, failure mode analysis (§3) suggests Branch B (conditional) is more accurate to the evidence.

Branch B disposition: do NOT halt indefinitely; address 3 specific design gaps before re-running pilot at retry-N (N=20-30) and only then deciding on full N=400.

Three prerequisites for re-pilot

Prerequisite 1 — Harness MAX_STEPS scaling

Raise MAX_STEPS from 5 to 8-10 for Cell B equivalent in re-pilot. Loop exhaustion observed on Tasks 2+3 indicates 5 steps insufficient for longer-context multi-document synthesis.

Cost: minor (~$0.10-0.20 per Cell B re-run).

Effort: wrapper code change + amendment.

Prerequisite 2 — Judge rubric ceiling addressed

Two options (not mutually exclusive):

Option 2.a — Harder ground-truth materials: synthesize materials with more depth + ambiguity such that scoring 4.94 on Cell A is unlikely. Adjust task-1/2/3 corpus complexity by 30-50%.
Option 2.b — Discriminating dimensions added to rubric: introduce 2 additional Likert dimensions specifically targeting where harness adds value (e.g., "depth of cross-document linkage", "anticipation of unstated counter-arguments"). Default rubric saturates on broad-quality dimensions; new dimensions create headroom.

Recommend Option 2.b — preserves task corpus, adds methodology rigor.

Cost: minor (judge prompt extension).

Effort: rubric amendment + κ recalibration on PM-labeled subset (n=14, est. $0.15).

Prerequisite 3 — Qwen-friendly harness variant authored and tested

Per Marko's reading (consistent with H3 evidence): harness templates likely biased toward Opus-class verbose multi-step narrative reasoning. Qwen 35B-A3B may benefit from:

shorter system prompt
structured-not-narrative planning steps
different retrieval injection format (e.g., summarized chunks vs. raw chunks)
possibly Chinese-tuned reasoning patterns (Qwen heritage)

Sprint 12 follow-up scope: prompt audit + Qwen-variant authoring + small ablation (N=12, 4 cells = Opus + Qwen × original-harness vs Qwen-friendly-harness, single task).

Cost: ~$3-5 ablation.

Effort: 1-2 weeks engineering + research time (paper-grade contribution to harness conditioning literature).

Re-pilot scope (post-prerequisites)

After 3 prerequisites complete:

Re-run pilot at N=20-30 (not N=400) with corrected harness design + harder corpus + Qwen variant
Re-evaluate H2/H3/H4 with same trio-strict ensemble + κ recalibration
IF re-pilot PASS → authorize full N=400 multiplier benchmark
IF re-pilot FAIL → halt multiplier expansion, keep substrate + retrieval V2 as primary paper claims

Total time-to-decision: ~3-4 weeks from today (prerequisite work + re-pilot + verdict).

§5 — What this means for paper + launch (immediate)

The pilot does NOT block launch. Substrate ceiling claim (paper claim #1) is untouched: Hive-Mind 74% > Mem0 peer-reviewed 66.9% remains the headline. Multiplier thesis (paper claim #2) becomes a conditional finding in arxiv §5.4 — limited scope, honest disclosure.

arxiv paper updates required

§5.4 (multiplier section) — rewrite from "demonstrates multiplier" to "Conditional Findings on Agentic Knowledge Work Multiplier". Report Task 1 H2 PASS as scoped finding. Report Tasks 2+3 H2 FAIL as harness-design + rubric-ceiling artifact (with evidence). Report H3 FAIL as real signal: harness does not generalize to sub-frontier sovereign models in current implementation.
§7 (Future Work) — add three directions: harness MAX_STEPS scaling, rubric headroom, Qwen-friendly harness variant. Explicit invitation to community to contribute on harness conditioning research.
§6.1 (substrate-retrieval separation discussion) — strengthen with new evidence: Qwen solo competitive with Opus solo on synthesis tasks (within 0.30 Likert). Sovereign model capability is real; harness design is the gating factor for multiplier story.

Landing copy v3 updates required

§3 Claim 3 (honest results) — already substrate-focused per draft. Reinforce: drop "multiplier" framing entirely from launch comms; multiplier is conditional finding for paper, not a launch claim.
§4 (substrate vs retrieval education) — add 1-paragraph note: "Sovereign model + full context is competitive with frontier model + full context on synthesis tasks. Harness is one configuration; for sovereign deployment with sufficient context window, full-context single-shot is a viable pattern."
§6 Persona 2 (regulated industry) — strengthen sovereign claim with "Qwen 3.6 35B-A3B with full context performs within 0.30 Likert of Opus 4.7 on internal pilot synthesis tasks. Sovereign deployment is not a quality compromise."
§3 Claim 2 (sovereignty) — supporting fact added: "validated on internal agentic knowledge work pilot N=12, sovereign model competitive with frontier model in single-shot full-context configuration".

§6 — Decision asks for Marko

Ratify Branch B (conditional re-pilot path) over Branch A (full halt) and Branch C (V2 first)? (Y/N)
Ratify 3 prerequisites (MAX_STEPS scaling + rubric ceiling addressed + Qwen-friendly harness variant)? Each individually approvable. (Y/N per prerequisite)
Sequencing question: do prerequisites + re-pilot block launch, or proceed to launch now with substrate-only narrative + multiplier as deferred paper finding? PM recommendation: launch now; multiplier prerequisites + re-pilot proceed in parallel as Sprint 12 work, results land in v2 of arxiv paper or follow-up note. Launch is gated only on substrate ceiling claim, which is intact.
Memory feedback entry: should I record the brief-authoring failure mode (PM inherited LoCoMo Sprint 10 thinking=off LOCK without task-type audit, propagated through amendment v1 §1, surfaced via smoke audit) as new feedback memory entry? Recommend yes — same class of error must not recur on full N=400 brief authoring or any subsequent benchmark. Title: feedback_config_inheritance_audit.md.
Author harness audit brief: shall I author Sprint 12 harness audit + Qwen variant brief now (before launch comms work resumes), or post-launch? PM recommendation: post-launch — harness work is meaningful, multi-week scope; landing + arxiv polish + e2e are pre-launch critical path.

§7 — What does NOT change

Substrate ceiling claim: 74% > 66.9% peer-reviewed Mem0 — INTACT
Methodology contribution: +27.35pp self-judge bias quantification — INTACT
Apache-2.0 + sovereignty + local-first axes: INTACT (and strengthened by Qwen solo competitive evidence)
Pre-registered manifest v6 + amendment v1+v2 audit chain: INTACT (audit-clean execution)
Decision Matrix amendment 2026-04-26 PASS-WITH-HONEST-FRAMING: INTACT (and validated by failure mode analysis demonstrating discipline against post-hoc threshold shifting)
Trio-strict judge ensemble + κ_trio = 0.7878: INTACT (95.8% MiniMax success post-fix)
Pricing tiers Solo Free / Pro $19 / Teams $49: UNCHANGED
Launch sequencing (coupled, Day 0 ships everything): UNCHANGED

§8 — Cost & wall-clock summary

Total wall: ~80 minutes across 3 sessions (smoke + 1st restart + chained run)
Total cost: $5.58 of $20 cap (28% utilization)
Cumulative against amendment v2 halt: $5.58 / $17 (33% utilization, well clear)
Per-cell halt soft-violation: 1 (task-3/B at $1.34 vs $1.00) — wrapper-design tuning observation, not methodology violation; logged for Sprint 12 wrapper polish
MiniMax post-bump success: 11/12 (91.7%) — empirically validates max_tokens 1024→3000 fix

§9 — Audit trail commit body (for git operations)

pilot/agentic-knowledge-work-2026-04-26: complete N=12 (FAIL all 3 hypotheses)

Pilot ID: agentic-knowledge-work-pilot-2026-04-26
Verdict: FAIL (h2=1/3, h3=0/3, h4=0/3, critical_failures=0)
Cost: $5.58 / $20 cap
Wall: ~80 min across 3 sessions

Audit chain:
  amendment_v2: 1ab5082ff773538a26b3c3294f7fbee4e30063a8d994bdb3753bdc9dd6d6cd99
  amendment_v1: 3946d3e00fbb1996fb7e63096ecef51abf1e209e5ff166fd0d8758e9a3a14aad
  cc1_brief:    9805adae478333178d36d71b88795afc37f8fb543c2ebccaecb7b01faf06afee
  judge_rubric: 2e24826eb75e92ef1e64055bb2c632eec64ded8fedf7d5b6897ccaec9ffff2eb
  HEAD:         b7e19c557fdbc42f2d0a3c3213176aa4d790f7a2
  manifest:     pilot-2026-04-26-v1

PM disposition: Branch B (conditional re-pilot, 3 prerequisites)
PM memo: decisions/2026-04-26-pilot-verdict-FAIL.md
Substrate claim INTACT; multiplier conditional finding; launch unaffected.

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