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waggle-os/docs/TOTAL-WORK-ESTIMATE.md
Oleg Maslov 0c3e2ead3b
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Total Remaining Work — Everything to Launch

Counted from: REMAINING-BACKLOG-2026-04-16.md + HIVE-MIND-INTEGRATION-DESIGN.md Date: 2026-04-16


Raw Item Count

Category Items Engineering Days Notes
Block 1: Marko's actions 10 0 Your time, not mine
Block 2: Harvest real data 9 3 Cursor adapter + imports
Block 3: Wiki v2 4 5 Obsidian, Notion adapters, health UI
Block 3b: Compliance report 5 3.5 PDF route, templates, full-page viewer
Block 3c: UX fixes 26 5 5 QW + 6 medium + 7 engagement + 9 a11y
Block 3c-R: Responsive 5 2 Dock, status bar, chat, onboarding, windows
Block 3d: CLAUDE.md open work 2 0.5 PersonaSwitcher redesign
Block 3e: Cross-reference 9 7 MS Graph, light mode, KG viewer, binary build
Block 4: Harvest UX polish 4 5 SSE progress, resume, identity, onboarding
Block 5: Memory proof 7 10 Test execution (~$300-500)
Block 6: GEPA proof 6 18 Test execution (~$1,500-2,500)
Block 7: Combined proof 3 6 Test execution (~$500)
Block 8: Write papers 4 5 Writing, not code
Block 9: Launch prep 8 5 Stripe, signing, Clerk, hive-mind extract, binary
Block 10: Launch day 5 1 Ship day
hive-mind integration 8 7 MCP resources, CLI, hooks, installer
Strategic decisions 6 0 Marko decisions
Content (non-code) 3 2 Demo video script, LinkedIn posts
TOTAL 124 items ~85 days sequential

But Most Runs in Parallel

WEEK 1-2: Code + Polish (parallel tracks)
├── Block 3c QW: 5 quick wins                     (0.25 days)
├── Block 3c medium: 6 UX fixes                   (1.5 days)
├── Block 3d: PersonaSwitcher redesign             (0.5 day)
├── Block 3b: Compliance PDF + templates           (3.5 days)
├── Block 3e-CR2: Light mode audit                 (0.5 day)
├── Block 3e-CR3: KG viewer gaps                   (0.5 day)
├── Block 3e-CR7: CLAUDE.md update                 (0.1 day)
├── hive-mind: MCP resources + instructions        (1.5 days)
└── Block 2-1.6: BUILD Cursor adapter              (1 day)
                                          SUBTOTAL: ~2 weeks

WEEK 2-3: Harvest + Harvest UX (needs Marko's exports)
├── Block 2: Import all platforms                  (2 days)
├── Block 4: Harvest UX (SSE, resume, onboarding)  (5 days, parallel)
├── Block 3: Wiki v2 (Obsidian, Notion, health UI) (5 days, parallel)
└── Block 3e-CR1: MS Graph connector               (3 days, parallel)
                                          SUBTOTAL: ~1.5 weeks

WEEK 3-4: Engagement + hive-mind + Proofs start
├── Block 3c ENG: 7 engagement features            (3 days)
├── Block 3c A11Y: 9 accessibility fixes           (1 day)
├── Block 3c-R: 5 responsive fixes                 (1 day)
├── hive-mind: CLI + hooks + installer             (5 days)
├── Block 5 START: Memory proof steps 1-3          (5 days, ~$250)
└── Block 6 START: Task suite curation             (3 days, $0)
                                          SUBTOTAL: ~1.5 weeks

WEEK 4-6: Proofs (mostly test execution, burns budget)
├── Block 5: Memory proof steps 4-7                (5 days, ~$150)
├── Block 6: GEPA baselines + evolution + judges   (12 days, ~$2,000)
├── Block 9: Launch prep parallel track            (5 days)
│   ├── Stripe smoke test (needs M7)
│   ├── Clerk integration
│   ├── hive-mind source extraction
│   ├── Binary build + smoke test
│   └── Landing page final polish
└── Content: Demo video script + LinkedIn drafts   (2 days)
                                          SUBTOTAL: ~2-3 weeks

WEEK 6-7: Combined proof + Papers
├── Block 7: Combined effect test                  (6 days, ~$500)
├── Block 8: Write Paper 1 + Paper 2               (5 days, parallel)
└── Block 8.3: External peer review                (Marko action)
                                          SUBTOTAL: ~1 week

WEEK 7-8: Final prep + Launch
├── Block 9: Final binary + signing + notarization (2 days)
├── Block 10: Launch day                           (1 day)
└── Post-launch: monitor, fix, respond             (ongoing)
                                          SUBTOTAL: ~1 week

Summary

Metric Value
Total items 124
Engineering days (sequential) ~85
Calendar weeks (parallel) ~7-8 weeks
Budget (API + cert) $2,650-4,000
Blocked on Marko 10 external actions
Strategic decisions needed 6

By Priority (what matters most)

P0 — Launch Blockers (must do)

Item Days Budget
Harvest real data (Block 2) 3 $50
Memory proof (Block 5) 10 $300-500
GEPA proof (Block 6) 18 $1,500-2,500
Combined proof (Block 7) 6 $500
Write papers (Block 8) 5 $0
Launch prep — Stripe, signing, Clerk, binary (Block 9) 5 $300-500 cert
hive-mind source extraction (CR-6) 3 $0
P0 subtotal 50 days $2,650-4,000

P1 — Ship Quality (should do before launch)

Item Days
5 UX quick wins (QW 1-5) 0.25
PersonaSwitcher redesign (OW-6) 0.5
Compliance PDF route + template (3b.1-3b.2) 1.5
Light mode audit (CR-2) 0.5
CLAUDE.md update (CR-7) 0.1
Cursor adapter (1.6) 1
hive-mind MCP resources + instructions (Layer 1+2) 1.5
Demo video script (CR-4) 1
P1 subtotal ~6.5 days

P2 — Polish (can ship without, do soon after)

Item Days
6 medium UX fixes 1.5
7 engagement features 3
Harvest UX full (SSE, resume, onboarding tile) 5
Wiki v2 (Obsidian, Notion, health UI) 5
Compliance full-page viewer + branding (3b.3-3b.5) 2
KG viewer gaps (CR-3) 0.5
hive-mind CLI + hooks + installer (Layer 3) 5
P2 subtotal ~22 days

P3 — Future (post-launch)

Item Days
9 accessibility fixes 1
5 responsive fixes 2
MS Graph connector (CR-1) 3
KVARK compliance template (3b.5) 0.5
LinkedIn posts (CR-5) content
Mac notarization (CR-9) Marko
P3 subtotal ~6.5 days

The Honest Answer

To launch (P0): ~50 engineering days, ~$3,000, ~5-6 weeks calendar. Most of that is test execution (proofs), not coding. Pure new code is ~15 days.

To launch with quality (P0+P1): add ~6.5 days → ~56 days, same budget.

To launch with polish (P0+P1+P2): add ~22 days → ~78 days, same budget.

Everything including future (P0+P1+P2+P3): ~85 days total.

The critical path is the GEPA proof (18 days) — that's the longest single item and it's on the critical path to Paper 2.