499 lines
20 KiB
YAML
499 lines
20 KiB
YAML
# Manifest v5 — Task 2.5 Stage 3 N=400 Pre-Registration (RPM-Throttled)
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# Canonical markdown surface: manifest-v5-preregistration.md
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# Supersedes manifest v4 (anchor dedd698) — v5 governs all Stage 3 re-kick.
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# SHA-256 of this YAML's bytes recorded in v5 anchor commit message.
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manifest_version: v5.0.0-preregistration
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manifest_type: stage_3_n400_preregistration_v5_rpm_throttled
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locked_date: 2026-04-24
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authority: PM (Marko Markovic) — P4 path (manifest v5 + concurrency=1) ratified 2026-04-24 on §1.3b IN_SCOPE verdict; inherits §1.1 + §1.2 ratifications
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sprint: 12
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task: 2.5
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stage: 3
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branch: feature/c3-v3-wrapper
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code_freeze_head: 373516c2784807da8536dbc0c194c54f4e4cd4be
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code_freeze_head_short: 373516c
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supersedes: manifest_v4_2026_04_24_anchor_dedd698
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inherits_from: bench_spec_lock_v1_2026_04_22
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# ── v5 Delta Log ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
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v5_delta_log:
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trigger:
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event: stage_3_gate_p_plus_probe_FAIL
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anchor_commit: 66dcd5a1b18b9367662b04f1c9e1b66d855a9481
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date: 2026-04-24
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observation: "24 / 50 HTTP 429 on gemini-3.1-pro-preview at 1.67 RPS steady"
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root_cause: "Google PRODUCT POLICY — per-model preview cap 25 RPM on generativelanguage.googleapis.com/generate_requests_per_model, independent of account billing tier"
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google_429_body_excerpt: "Quota exceeded for metric: generativelanguage.googleapis.com/generate_requests_per_model, limit: 25, model: gemini-3.1-pro"
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scope_audit:
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anchor_commit: 69a14708f78a74d2cb7ef07faf2d949f6ffc3209
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memo: benchmarks/results/manifest-v4-litellm-config-scope-audit.md
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verdict: IN_SCOPE
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rationale: "MD narrow (`litellm-config.yaml judge aliases`) + YAML strict (flat `litellm-config.yaml` in frozen_paths) both yield IN_SCOPE for any rpm:20 edit"
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p2_status: terminally_blocked
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fallback_path: P4_manifest_v5_concurrency_1
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changes_from_v4:
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sample_concurrency:
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v4: 2
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v5: 1
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rationale: "halves peak Gemini RPS; pairs with LiteLLM rpm:20 throttle for safety margin under 25 RPM Google cap"
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judge_ensemble_section_5_2:
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v4: "no rate-limit metadata on any judge alias"
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v5: "rpm: 20 addendum on gemini-3.1-pro-preview alias block in litellm-config.yaml"
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rationale: "20 < 25 Google cap with 5 RPM margin for burst variance"
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permitted_exception: true
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exception_scope: single_edit_single_file
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exception_target_path: litellm-config.yaml
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exception_target_line_range_approx: "361-364 (gemini-3.1-pro-preview alias block)"
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stopping_rule_7_4:
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v4: "concurrent_runners: FORBIDDEN (cross-process); §1.1 waiver permits intra-wrapper parallel"
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v5: "concurrent_runners: SEQUENTIAL (parallel-concurrency=1); §1.1 cross-process-only waiver still governs but moot under sequential design"
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code_freeze_section_11:
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v4: "HEAD 373516c; no file modifications during run"
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v5: "HEAD 373516c; the SINGLE permitted pre-run modification = litellm-config.yaml §5.2 addendum (rpm:20 on gemini-3.1-pro-preview). All other frozen paths unchanged."
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budget_wall_clock_estimate:
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v4: "40-60 min (optimistic, pre-empirical)"
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v5: "2-3 hours under concurrency=1 + rpm:20 Gemini throttle"
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cli_invocation:
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v4_flag: "--parallel-concurrency 2"
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v5_flag: "--parallel-concurrency 1"
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v5_manifest_flag: "--manifest benchmarks/preregistration/manifest-v5-preregistration.yaml"
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unchanged_from_v4:
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sections:
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- "§1 primary hypothesis (Fisher one-sided p<0.10 on retrieval − no-context ≥ 5pp)"
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- "§2 secondary endpoints S1-S5"
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- "§4 dataset (LoCoMo 1531 instances, raw SHA 79fa87e9..., canonical SHA 39e415e2...)"
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- "§6 substrate (HybridSearch conv-scope top-K=20, nomic-embed-text)"
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- "§7 SYSTEM_AGENTIC verbatim bytes (SHA-256 6facae6d..., 1467 bytes)"
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- "§9 post-hoc exclusion policy NONE"
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- "§10 deviation policy (halt + restart-required)"
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- "§12 scope boundaries + SOTA composition reserved for PM"
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- "§13 PM gates structure (Gate P / Gate D)"
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- "budget envelope §14 dollar amounts ($30/$28/~$23)"
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parent_chain:
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v4_predecessor: dedd69888e008fb1584bc249aff43b19f55a88e5
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section_1_1_lock_waiver: 67eb89914a49ec38049379bf952d5f62b82c188d
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section_1_2_rca: 274e9871b54599077a3d72de88d505550803a805
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section_1_3_probe_fail: 66dcd5a1b18b9367662b04f1c9e1b66d855a9481
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section_1_3b_scope_audit: 69a14708f78a74d2cb7ef07faf2d949f6ffc3209
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# ── Field 7 slots (preregistration.ts PreregistrationManifestPayload) ───────
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manifest_path: benchmarks/preregistration/manifest-v5-preregistration.yaml
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manifest_locked_at: 2026-04-24T00:00:00Z
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dataset:
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name: locomo
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source_url: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/snap-research/locomo/main/data/locomo10.json
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raw_archive_path: benchmarks/data/locomo10.json
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raw_archive_sha256: 79fa87e90f04081343b8c8debecb80a9a6842b76a7aa537dc9fdf651ea698ff4
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raw_archive_bytes: 2805274
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canonical_path: benchmarks/data/locomo/locomo-1540.jsonl
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canonical_sha256: 39e415e2f3a0fa1bd3cb1804a58d0b440b50d3070b2100698437e4ec402a5b24
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canonical_instance_count: 1531
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paper_total_claim: 1540
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paper_reference: "Maharana et al., ACL-2024 — Evaluating Very Long-Term Conversational Memory of LLM Agents"
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category_distribution:
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single_hop: 841
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multi_hop: 281
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temporal: 320
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open_ended: 89
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# ── Primary hypothesis (unchanged from v4) ──────────────────────────────────
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primary_hypothesis:
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name: memory_lift_retrieval_vs_no_context
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direction: one_sided_positive
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statement: "retrieval_judge_accuracy − no-context_judge_accuracy ≥ 5pp"
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test: fisher_exact_one_sided
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alpha_threshold: 0.10
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effect_size_threshold_pp: 5
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justification_ex_ante:
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- gate_b_dry_run_conv_scope_20_of_20_vs_whole_corpus_8_of_20_leak_2026_04_24
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- gate_c_monotonicity_no_context_0_10_lt_retrieval_0_35_lt_agentic_0_40_lt_oracle_0_55
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# ── Secondary endpoints (unchanged from v4) ─────────────────────────────────
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secondary_endpoints:
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S1_monotonicity_no_context_leq_retrieval:
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direction: one_sided_positive
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threshold_pp: 0
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test: fisher_exact_one_sided
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alpha: 0.20
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S2_monotonicity_retrieval_leq_agentic:
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direction: one_sided_positive
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threshold_pp: 0
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test: fisher_exact_one_sided
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alpha: 0.20
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S3_monotonicity_agentic_leq_oracle_context:
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direction: one_sided_positive
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threshold_pp: 0
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test: fisher_exact_one_sided
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alpha: 0.20
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S4_agentic_lift_over_retrieval:
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direction: descriptive
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threshold_pp: 0
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report: [point_estimate, wilson_95_ci]
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S5_abstain_penalty_oracle_minus_full_context:
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direction: descriptive_expected_positive
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report: [point_estimate]
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# ── Sample design (CHANGED: concurrency 2 → 1) ──────────────────────────────
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sample:
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cells:
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- no-context
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- oracle-context
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- full-context
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- retrieval
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- agentic
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n_per_cell: 400
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total_evaluations: 2000
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instance_selection_seed: 42
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instance_selection_method: "shuffle-then-take-first-N, deterministic given seed"
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matched_pairs: true
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concurrency: 1
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concurrency_rationale: "§1.3 Gate P+ empirical finding — Gemini per-model 25 RPM cap. Concurrency=1 halves peak Gemini RPS; pairs with §5.2 addendum rpm:20 for 5 RPM margin."
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# ── Cells semantics (unchanged from v4, frozen at HEAD 373516c) ─────────────
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cells_semantics:
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no_context:
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system_prompt: SYSTEM_BASELINE
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user_prompt: "Question: {question}"
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memory_injection: none
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added_at: stage_2_retry_1_1_2026_04_24
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oracle_context:
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system_prompt: SYSTEM_BASELINE
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user_prompt: "Context: {instance.context}\\n\\nQuestion: {instance.question}"
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memory_injection: oracle_fed_by_locomo
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harness_alias: raw
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full_context:
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system_prompt: SYSTEM_EVOLVED
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memory_injection: oracle_fed_plus_evolved_abstain
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retrieval:
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system_prompt: SYSTEM_BASELINE
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substrate: waggle_core_hybrid_search
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scope: conversation_scoped_via_gopId
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top_k_default: 20
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top_k_upper_clamp: 50
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agentic:
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system_prompt: SYSTEM_AGENTIC_softened_stage2_retry
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system_prompt_sha256: 6facae6decc44a6404290514accb4f7cb364081b32d02847a20f8e871633e328
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system_prompt_bytes: 1467
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tool_allowlist:
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- search_memory
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tool_binding: "search_memory bound to instance.conversation_id; non-overridable"
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max_turns: 3
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timeout_ms: 180000
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forced_answer_fallback:
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enabled: true
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system_prompt: SYSTEM_AGENTIC_FORCED_FALLBACK
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gate_c_firing_rate: 0
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# ── Model stack (CHANGED: §5.2 addendum rpm:20 on Gemini alias) ─────────────
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subject_model: qwen3.6-35b-a3b-via-dashscope-direct
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subject_fallback_1: qwen3.6-35b-a3b-via-openrouter
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subject_fallback_2: NOT_AVAILABLE
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subject_route_table:
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primary:
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alias: qwen3.6-35b-a3b-via-dashscope-direct
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litellm_model: qwen3.6-35b-a3b-via-dashscope-direct
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upstream_route: "LiteLLM local alias -> openai/qwen3.6-35b-a3b @ https://dashscope-intl.aliyuncs.com/compatible-mode/v1"
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provider: alibaba
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thinking: on
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max_tokens: 16000
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price_per_million_input_usd: 0.20
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price_per_million_output_usd: 0.80
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context_window: 262144
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pinning_surface: floating_alias
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fallback_1:
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alias: qwen3.6-35b-a3b-via-openrouter
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litellm_model: qwen3.6-35b-a3b-via-openrouter
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upstream_route: "LiteLLM -> OpenRouter bridge (openrouter/qwen/qwen3.5-35b-a3b)"
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thinking: on
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max_tokens: 64000
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pinning_surface: floating_alias
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trigger_condition: fetch_error_on_primary
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fallback_2:
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alias: NOT_AVAILABLE
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judge_ensemble:
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primary:
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- judge_role: primary
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slot: primary_judge_1
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model_id: claude-opus-4-7
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provider: anthropic
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litellm_model: claude-opus-4-7
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pinning_surface: anthropic_immutable
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rate_limit_v5: null
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price_per_million_input_usd: 15.00
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price_per_million_output_usd: 75.00
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- judge_role: primary
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slot: primary_judge_2
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model_id: gpt-5.4
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provider: openai_via_openrouter
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litellm_model: gpt-5.4
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pinning_surface: floating_alias
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rate_limit_v5: null
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price_per_million_input_usd: 10.00
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price_per_million_output_usd: 30.00
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- judge_role: primary
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slot: primary_judge_3
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model_id: gemini-3.1-pro-preview
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provider: google
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litellm_model: gemini-3.1-pro-preview
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pinning_surface: floating_alias
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rate_limit_v5:
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rpm: 20
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rationale: "v5 §5.2 addendum under 25 RPM Google per-model cap (§1.3 probe root cause); 5 RPM margin for burst variance"
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delivery_mechanism: "inline in litellm-config.yaml model_list[gemini-3.1-pro-preview] block (the SINGLE permitted §11 exception)"
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fail_escalation:
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- rpm_15_if_probe_v2_FAIL_at_20
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- openrouter_route_swap_P7_if_throttle_insufficient
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price_per_million_input_usd: 3.50
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price_per_million_output_usd: 10.50
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tiebreak:
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judge_role: reserve
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model_id: grok-4.20
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provider: xai_via_openrouter
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litellm_model: openrouter/x-ai/grok-4.20
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rate_limit_v5: null
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trigger: three_way_split_1_1_1
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defensive_2_2_path: pm-escalation
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consistency_constraint: same_physical_judge_models_as_stage_1_stage_1_5_stage_2_stage_2_retry_v4
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vote_policy: majority_with_grok_reserve_on_1_1_1_split
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judge_primary:
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id: claude-opus-4-7
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judge_secondary:
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id: gpt-5.4
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judge_tie_breaker:
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id: gemini-3.1-pro-preview
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# ── Substrate (unchanged from v4) ───────────────────────────────────────────
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substrate:
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implementation: "@waggle/core::HybridSearch (RRF-fused FTS5 + vec0)"
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scope_filter:
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parameter: gopId
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source_location: packages/core/src/mind/search.ts:14
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field_name: SearchOptions.gopId
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benchmark_binding: instance.conversation_id
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top_k_default: 20
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top_k_upper_clamp: 50
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embedder:
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factory: createOllamaEmbedder
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base_url: http://localhost:11434
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model: nomic-embed-text
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dims: 1024
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cost: zero_local_inference
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ingest_batch_size: 200
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# ── κ, CI, failure taxonomy (all unchanged from v4) ─────────────────────────
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kappa_monitoring:
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baseline_reference: sprint_10_task_2_2_kappa_0_7458
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compute: fleiss_kappa_on_pre_tiebreak_vote_matrix
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thresholds:
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pass_no_flag_kappa_min: 0.65
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pass_with_flag_kappa_range: [0.60, 0.65]
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halt_kappa_max: 0.60
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halt_drop_from_baseline_max_pp: 10
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confidence_intervals:
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primary:
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method: wilson_score_95
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secondary:
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method: cluster_bootstrap_95
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iterations: 10000
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seed: 42
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cluster_unit: conversation_id
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failure_taxonomy:
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version: v1
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categories:
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- {code: F1, name: contradicts_ground_truth}
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- {code: F2, name: partial_answer}
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- {code: F3, name: off_topic}
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- {code: F4, name: refusal}
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- {code: F5, name: tool_use_error}
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- {code: F6, name: format_violation}
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# ── Stopping rules (§7.4 updated under concurrency=1) ───────────────────────
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stopping_rules:
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budget_hard_halt_usd: 28.00
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budget_cap_usd: 30.00
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streak_halt: "3 consecutive subject fetch failures -> halt (streak-tracker.ts)"
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pre_cell_health_check: "GET /health/liveliness + POST /v1/chat/completions ping per model -> halt on any 5xx/fetch-error"
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runner_lock: "concurrent_runners: SEQUENTIAL (parallel-concurrency=1); §1.1 cross-process waiver still governs — moot under sequential design"
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deviation_from_preregistration: "any change to §1-§9 during run -> immediate halt + PM raise"
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no_interim_looks: true
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mid_run_amendment_policy: halt_restart_required
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# ── Post-hoc exclusion: NONE (unchanged from v4) ────────────────────────────
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post_hoc_exclusion:
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policy: none
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evaluator_loss_handling:
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included_in_denominator: true
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reported_separately: true
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denominator_formula: "correct + incorrect + evaluator_loss"
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# ── Budget (envelope unchanged; wall-clock re-estimated) ────────────────────
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budget:
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cap_usd: 30.00
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hard_halt_usd: 28.00
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expected_burn_usd: 23.00
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variance_ceiling_usd: 28.00
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breakdown_expected:
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subject_qwen_dashscope_direct_usd: 2.50
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judge_triple_opus_gpt5_gemini_usd: 20.00
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embedding_ollama_local_usd: 0.00
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tie_break_grok_reserve_usd: 0.50
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wall_clock_estimate:
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v4_optimistic_min: 40
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v4_optimistic_max: 60
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v5_realistic_hours_min: 2
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v5_realistic_hours_max: 3
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v5_floor_minutes_derived_from_rpm_20_and_2000_evals: 100
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# ── Target sample + CLI invocation (v5-specific) ────────────────────────────
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target_N: 400
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target_cells:
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- no-context
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- oracle-context
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- full-context
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- retrieval
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- agentic
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target_total_evaluations: 2000
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target_concurrency: 1
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cli_invocation_template: >
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npx tsx scripts/run-mini-locomo.ts
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--manifest benchmarks/preregistration/manifest-v5-preregistration.yaml
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--subject qwen3.6-35b-a3b-via-dashscope-direct
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--subject-fallback-1 qwen3.6-35b-a3b-via-openrouter
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--judge-ensemble claude-opus-4-7,gpt-5.4,gemini-3.1-pro
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--v3-cells --N 400 --parallel-concurrency 1 --seed 42
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# ── Code freeze — SINGLE permitted exception ────────────────────────────────
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code_freeze:
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head: 373516c2784807da8536dbc0c194c54f4e4cd4be
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branch: feature/c3-v3-wrapper
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frozen_paths:
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- benchmarks/harness/src/cells.ts
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- benchmarks/harness/src/substrate.ts
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- benchmarks/harness/src/judge-client.ts
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- benchmarks/harness/src/judge-runner.ts
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- benchmarks/harness/src/health-check.ts
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- benchmarks/harness/src/streak-tracker.ts
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- benchmarks/harness/src/runner-lock.ts
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- benchmarks/harness/src/runner.ts
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- benchmarks/harness/config/models.json
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- packages/agent/src/agent-loop.ts
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- packages/agent/src/tools.ts
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- packages/core/src/mind/search.ts
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- packages/core/src/mind/frames.ts
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- packages/core/src/mind/sessions.ts
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- packages/core/src/mind/db.ts
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- litellm-config.yaml
|
||
permitted_delta_during_run:
|
||
- "new JSONL files emitted to benchmarks/results/ by the N=400 run"
|
||
permitted_pre_run_delta_v5_single_exception:
|
||
path: litellm-config.yaml
|
||
scope: "add rpm: 20 to gemini-3.1-pro-preview alias block (model_list entry); no other fields modified"
|
||
committed_separately_before_run: true
|
||
justification: "manifest v5 §5.2 addendum; only permitted exception to §11 freeze; governed by v5 delta log"
|
||
|
||
# ── Deviation policy (unchanged from v4) ────────────────────────────────────
|
||
|
||
deviation_policy:
|
||
on_detection:
|
||
- immediate_halt
|
||
- pm_raise
|
||
- re_preregister_new_manifest_v6_if_accepted
|
||
|
||
# ── PM gates (unchanged from v4 structure) ──────────────────────────────────
|
||
|
||
pm_gates:
|
||
gate_p_plus_v5_pre_run:
|
||
trigger: "anchor commit of v5 md + yaml + litellm-config.yaml §5.2 addendum on feature/c3-v3-wrapper"
|
||
pre_kick_checks_required:
|
||
- section_1_1_lock_semantics_ratified
|
||
- section_1_2_rca_ratified
|
||
- section_1_3_probe_v1_FAIL_adjudicated
|
||
- section_1_3b_scope_audit_ratified
|
||
- section_1_3c_throttle_probe_v2_PASS
|
||
- section_1_3e_rpd_feasibility_FEASIBLE
|
||
action: "CC-1 halts; awaits GATE-D-REKICK-GO after §1.3c + §1.3e"
|
||
gate_d_post_run:
|
||
trigger: "N=400 run exit (clean or halted per stopping_rules)"
|
||
action: "CC-1 writes Gate D exit report at PM-Waggle-OS/sessions/2026-04-24-task25-stage3-n400-complete.md; halts"
|
||
outcomes:
|
||
- compose_sota_claim_authority_pm
|
||
- publish_gate
|
||
- further_scope
|
||
cc1_self_advance: forbidden_at_both_gates
|
||
|
||
# ── Scope boundaries (unchanged from v4) ────────────────────────────────────
|
||
|
||
scope_boundaries:
|
||
claimable_at_gate_d:
|
||
- memory_lift_magnitude_and_significance_conv_scope_qwen_harness_head_373516c
|
||
- per_cell_judge_accuracy_wilson_95
|
||
- monotonicity_chain_observation_5_cell
|
||
- conv_scope_fair_comparison_methodology
|
||
- agentic_discipline_search_rate_turns_unknown_fallback
|
||
not_claimable_at_gate_d:
|
||
- direct_comparability_to_mem0_91_6_different_scope_and_memory_layer
|
||
- multi_model_generalization_stage_3_is_qwen_only
|
||
- production_waggle_orchestrator_performance
|
||
reserved_for_pm_at_gate_d:
|
||
- public_claim_phrasing_venue
|
||
- matched_scope_mem0_co_run_stage_4
|
||
- publication_timing
|
||
cc1_does_not_compose_public_sota_claim: true
|
||
|
||
# ── Related artefacts ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||
|
||
related:
|
||
v4_predecessor: dedd69888e008fb1584bc249aff43b19f55a88e5
|
||
section_1_1_lock_waiver: 67eb89914a49ec38049379bf952d5f62b82c188d
|
||
section_1_2_rca: 274e9871b54599077a3d72de88d505550803a805
|
||
section_1_3_probe_fail: 66dcd5a1b18b9367662b04f1c9e1b66d855a9481
|
||
section_1_3b_scope_audit: 69a14708f78a74d2cb7ef07faf2d949f6ffc3209
|
||
bench_spec_lock_v1_parent: PM-Waggle-OS/decisions/2026-04-22-bench-spec-locked.manifest.yaml
|
||
stage_2_retry_gate_c_exit: PM-Waggle-OS/sessions/2026-04-24-task25-stage2-retry-complete.md
|
||
stage_3_rekick_brief_option_a: PM-Waggle-OS/briefs/2026-04-24-cc-task25-stage3-rekick-option-a.md
|
||
rollback_tag: checkpoint/pre-self-evolution-2026-04-14
|
||
canonical_md_surface: benchmarks/preregistration/manifest-v5-preregistration.md
|
||
|
||
# ── Validation gates ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
|
||
|
||
validation_gates:
|
||
before_n400_kickoff_v5:
|
||
- v5_anchor_commit_sha_recorded
|
||
- v5_md_sha256_recorded_in_commit_message
|
||
- v5_yaml_sha256_recorded_in_commit_message
|
||
- litellm_config_rpm_20_edit_committed_separately
|
||
- section_1_3c_throttle_probe_v2_PASS
|
||
- section_1_3e_rpd_feasibility_FEASIBLE
|
||
- pm_gate_d_rekick_go_received
|
||
- kickoff_mechanism_clean_foreground_non_harness_process_tree
|
||
at_gate_d_exit_v5:
|
||
- all_2000_evals_accounted_in_denominators
|
||
- evaluator_loss_reported_separately
|
||
- primary_fisher_one_sided_computed
|
||
- secondary_endpoints_reported
|
||
- budget_reconciled
|
||
- deviation_count_reported
|
||
- code_freeze_reverified_head_373516c_plus_single_litellm_addendum
|