waggle-os/docs/decisions/2026-04-25-pm-pre-fill-decision-matrix-recommendations.md

PM Pre-Fill Recommendations — Launch Gate Decision Matrix

Date: 2026-04-25 Author: claude-opus-4-7 (PM Cowork) Companion: decisions/2026-04-25-launch-gate-reframe-decision-matrix.md Purpose: Reduce Marko-vov sutra-jutarnji decision time from 30-45 min na 10-15 min review-mode by providing PM-recommended verdict + rationale + confidence per cell. Marko accepts default ili overrides per cell.

Confidence scale:

• HIGH — strategic logic + repo/research data alignment + few legitimate alternatives → expect Marko ratification
• MEDIUM — defensible default but legitimate alternatives exist → expect ~70% Marko ratification, 30% override
• LOW — Marko-personal-preference-dependent (capital structure, hiring posture, public persona); PM defers but recommends conservative stance

24 cells = 8 dimensions × 3 scenarios.

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Dimension 1 — Claim narrative

Scenario PASS

PM RECOMMEND: "Waggle hit [LOCOMO_SCORE]% on LoCoMo, beating Mem0's [BASELINE_REF]% reference. Built on hive-mind, the local-first Apache 2.0 cognitive substrate that follows you across Claude Code, Cursor, Hermes, and 3 more AI IDEs."

Add cross-IDE shim portfolio kao supporting evidence — strengthens narrative beyond benchmark singleton.

Rationale: Beat-Mem0 hook je strongest possible narrative. Cross-IDE shim mention extends story past one-day cycle. Honest caveats (n=400, agentic κ, Qwen subject) mandatory u body, not headline.

Confidence: HIGH

Scenario PARTIAL

PM RECOMMEND: "First Apache 2.0 local-first memory substrate to publish a comparable LoCoMo result. We're [DELTA]pp behind cloud-shaped Mem0; that gap is the cost of local-first sovereignty. One memory file, every AI IDE you use."

Lead sa local-first-quadrant clean-win framing + cross-IDE positioning, NOT benchmark headline.

Rationale: PARTIAL band requires reframe from "we hit SOTA" to "we lead in our category." Honesty about gap signals integrity (Zep/Mem0 dispute precedent shows overstated claims unwind). Cross-IDE is the productized differentiator that doesn't depend on benchmark winning.

Confidence: HIGH

Scenario FAIL

PM RECOMMEND: NOT a benchmark-led narrative. "hive-mind: the Apache 2.0 cognitive substrate that follows you across 6 AI IDEs. One memory file. Zero cloud. Honest evaluation included."

Methodology blog post (separate from launch announcement) discloses LoCoMo number neutral framing: "our pre-registered evaluation produced [LOCOMO_SCORE]%; we don't lead with this because it's not SOTA."

Rationale: Pre-registration honor mandatory — bands LOCKED, no post-hoc reframe attempt to rescue. Pivot to product narrative (cross-IDE shim portfolio) salvages launch momentum without dishonesty about benchmark.

Confidence: HIGH

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Dimension 2 — Launch coupling sequence

Scenario PASS

PM RECOMMEND: Coupled simultaneous Day 0 launch — hive-mind core + 3 MVP shims + Waggle landing live + paid tiers Stripe checkout active. All press/community/email channels synchronized within 30-min window.

Rationale: SOTA momentum is renewable per asset (blog, LinkedIn, Twitter, HN, Reddit) but each asset only fires once. Coupling maximizes day-0 attention concentration.

Confidence: HIGH

Scenario PARTIAL

PM RECOMMEND: Decoupled — hive-mind + 3 shims first (week 0), Waggle 2-4 weeks later. Build infrastructure adoption signal, then commercial product launches as "the fully featured cousin."

Rationale: PARTIAL benchmark + Waggle tier launch sa PARTIAL banner = competing for attention with weaker narrative; better to claim local-first infra category first, then commercial product on pre-built audience.

Confidence: MEDIUM (alternative: still couple to capture brand-narrative momentum)

Scenario FAIL

PM RECOMMEND: Pivot launch — hive-mind + 3 shims as primary product day 0. Waggle delayed 4-8 weeks (revisit benchmark methodology + ship LongMemEval first to validate alternative-axis claim before re-attempt at Waggle launch).

Rationale: Without SOTA claim, Waggle u crowded "agent IDE" space lacks differentiator. Defer commercial launch until benchmark improvement OR adoption metrics from shim portfolio justify revisit.

Confidence: HIGH

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Dimension 3 — Pricing posture

Scenario PASS

PM RECOMMEND: Hold ratified pricing per project_locked_decisions. Free / Pro $19/mo / Teams $49/seat/mo. SOTA premium justifies above-Mem0-Starter pricing. No discount, no early-bird.

Rationale: Pricing power is real with NEW_SOTA banner. Discounting signals weakness; hold position.

Confidence: HIGH

Scenario PARTIAL

PM RECOMMEND: Hold pricing same as PASS, but emphasize Free tier value first. Pro/Teams targeted at compliance-driven buyers (local-first = mandate not preference for them).

Rationale: PARTIAL doesn't unlock SOTA premium pricing power, but doesn't crash it either. Free tier as adoption funnel; Pro/Teams targeted properly. No discount needed.

Confidence: MEDIUM (alternative: 6-month "early supporter" Pro $9/mo to drive adoption, revisit at $19 after retention proven)

Scenario FAIL

PM RECOMMEND: Pricing pivot — Free tier extended (10 workspaces vs 5, all skills marketplace tiers free). Pro $9/mo introductory price for first 1,000 users (12-month commitment). Teams holds at $49 (enterprise sale not benchmark-dependent).

Rationale: Without SOTA, must compete on value-density and ergonomics. Aggressive Free tier seeds adoption; introductory Pro pricing hooks early-supporter cohort; Teams unchanged because enterprise compliance buyers weighed against KVARK already.

Confidence: MEDIUM (alternative: hold full pricing, accept slower adoption ramp)

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Dimension 4 — Audience targeting

Scenario PASS

PM RECOMMEND: Three primary audiences day 0, prioritized:

1. Privacy-conscious devs (highest converting) — Cursor + Claude Code + Hermes audiences via shim distribution
2. AI/ML researchers + tool builders — methodology + pre-reg manifest deep-link
3. Compliance-mandated enterprises (banks, healthcare, EU regulated) — KVARK lead capture forms

Rationale: Privacy-conscious devs convert fastest sa local-first message + working shims. Researchers validate via methodology. Enterprise sale follows technical credibility.

Confidence: HIGH

Scenario PARTIAL

PM RECOMMEND: Two primary audiences day 0:

1. Privacy-conscious devs (most receptive to local-first message)
2. Compliance-mandated enterprises (KVARK lead via outbound, not inbound campaign)

ML research audience deferred to second blog post 2-4 weeks later.

Rationale: PARTIAL doesn't strongly attract ML researcher audience (they index on SOTA numbers). Concentrate on dev + compliance buyers where local-first is clear value.

Confidence: HIGH

Scenario FAIL

PM RECOMMEND: Single primary audience day 0 — privacy-conscious devs using AI agent IDEs. Lead with cross-IDE shim portfolio. Deprioritize ML research + enterprise audiences until later (sequel benchmark or adoption metrics inform).

Rationale: FAIL eliminates ML researcher audience entirely (dishonest to court). Enterprise sales typically need >12 month sales cycles + benchmarks for procurement; postpone until benchmark improvement.

Confidence: HIGH

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Dimension 5 — Press / PR strategy

Scenario PASS

PM RECOMMEND: Synchronized launch with 48h press embargo. Pre-brief: TechCrunch, The Verge, Ars Technica, IEEE Spectrum, AI newsletters (TLDR AI, Ben's Bites, AI Tidbits). Day 0: simultaneous press + community + product release. Hacker News + Reddit submissions by Marko personally.

Rationale: NEW_SOTA banner deserves earned-media leverage. Press embargo aligns coverage to launch moment. Community submissions by founder accumulate organic goodwill (vs paid PR which devs distrust).

Confidence: MEDIUM (alternative: skip paid PR, community-only — risk: stories told without context if random journalist picks up)

Scenario PARTIAL

PM RECOMMEND: Soft press strategy — community-first (HN, Reddit, Twitter, Discord). No paid PR, no embargo. Reach out to specific researchers/orgs (DAIR, Anthropic, Nous Research) post-launch.

Rationale: PARTIAL doesn't justify embargo machinery. Community-led discovery scales naturally for honest local-first claim; targeted research outreach builds methodology credibility.

Confidence: HIGH

Scenario FAIL

PM RECOMMEND: No press push initially. Quiet launch via GitHub + Twitter. Methodology blog post (separate from launch) targets researchers 2-4 weeks later.

Rationale: FAIL + press attention = brand damage risk if "we launched memory thing that didn't beat SOTA" becomes the headline. Quiet launch lets shim portfolio adoption signal product-market fit before public scrutiny.

Confidence: HIGH

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Dimension 6 — Hires plan

Scenario PASS

PM RECOMMEND: Aggressive — jobs.egzakta.com active day 0 sa 3-5 roles:

• DevRel lead (developer engagement, conference speaking, content)
• Senior eng OSS maintenance (hive-mind core + shim portfolio)
• GTM / growth marketing lead (paid acquisition, conversion optimization)
• Enterprise sales lead (KVARK pilots)
• Optional: ML research engineer (next-benchmark sequence)

Prominent "We're hiring" CTAs u blog post + LinkedIn.

Rationale: SOTA + funded competitors precedent (Mem0 $24M, Cognee $7.5M, Supermemory $3M) means org capacity is the bottleneck within 6-12 months; hire signal capitalizes attention moment.

Confidence: MEDIUM (LOW dimension because Marko personal preference re hiring pace, especially given Egzakta cash flow already 4.5M EBITDA = no immediate hire pressure; alternative: post 1-2 roles, hold rest until adoption metrics)

Scenario PARTIAL

PM RECOMMEND: Moderate — 1-2 roles: OSS maintainer + DevRel. Hold enterprise sales hire until adoption metrics inform. KVARK enterprise via existing Egzakta consulting team initially.

Rationale: PARTIAL doesn't require aggressive scaling; OSS maintainer protects shim portfolio quality; DevRel covers community. Enterprise sale wait-and-see.

Confidence: HIGH

Scenario FAIL

PM RECOMMEND: No hiring announcements at launch. Hold all roles until 4-8 weeks of adoption metrics inform org capacity needs.

Rationale: Hiring announcement on FAIL launch = "they're scaling without traction" perception damage. Hold + execute on existing team.

Confidence: HIGH

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Dimension 7 — Investor narrative

Scenario PASS

PM RECOMMEND: Open conversations with seed/A funds aktivno week 1-2 post-launch.

Pitch deck v1 messaging: "First Apache 2.0 local-first cognitive substrate that beat cloud SOTA on LoCoMo. Cross-IDE shim portfolio in 6 AI agent platforms. Egzakta cash flow signal as bootstrap credential."

Targets: Initialized, BoxGroup, Founders Fund (Peter Thiel local-first sympathies), NEA (memory-tech adjacent), DCVC (deep tech), Acrew (developer tools focus).

Aim: $5-10M seed at $20-40M post-money valuation.

Rationale: SOTA + working shims + revenue path (Waggle paid tiers + KVARK enterprise) = strong seed narrative. Egzakta financial backbone reduces fund-raise pressure (Marko negotiates from strength).

Confidence: LOW (Marko-personal-preference: capital structure, dilution tolerance, growth speed vs control trade-off; PM defers heavily but provides default)

Scenario PARTIAL

PM RECOMMEND: Silent investor conversations only — pitch deck v1.5 emphasizes "best local-first published result" + commercial trajectory + Egzakta financials.

Targets: 5-10 most aligned funds (focused on infra + dev tools + privacy-tech), no broad outreach.

Aim: $3-7M seed at $15-25M post-money.

Rationale: PARTIAL doesn't carry hype premium; silent conversations preserve optionality without waste-of-time discovery.

Confidence: LOW (same Marko-personal preference dependency)

Scenario FAIL

PM RECOMMEND: Defer fundraise 6-12 months. Continue bootstrap from Egzakta. Use period to:

1. Ship LongMemEval + BEAM 1M + 10M results + at least one Claude config benchmark (per research/00-SYNTHESIS.md §3 missing-gap)
2. Drive shim portfolio adoption (target: 10K combined installs across 6 shims)
3. Validate enterprise sale via 3-5 KVARK pilots through Egzakta network

Re-engage investors in 6-12 months sa stronger numbers + adoption signal.

Rationale: FAIL fund-raise = forced down-round risk; defer until story ripens. Egzakta cash flow provides runway to repair narrative without external pressure.

Confidence: HIGH

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Dimension 8 — KVARK enterprise pivot timing

Scenario PASS

PM RECOMMEND: KVARK pilots active immediately — Marko's network targets 5-10 named enterprise prospects week 1-4. EU compliance-driven, sovereign on-prem deployment value prop. Pricing custom per deployment ($50K-$250K typical).

Lean on Egzakta ~200 staff consulting backbone for delivery + advisory bundle.

Rationale: SOTA banner gives sales team explicit credibility; compliance + sovereignty are pre-existing enterprise demand drivers; Egzakta delivery capability eliminates capacity concern.

Confidence: HIGH

Scenario PARTIAL

PM RECOMMEND: KVARK pilots active 4-8 weeks post-Waggle-launch. Build case from Waggle + shim adoption metrics first; pilot conversations open with "the local-first stack you've heard about, now sovereign-deployed for your hardware."

Rationale: Need adoption signal to land enterprise conversations confidently u PARTIAL band; 4-8 weeks builds enough story.

Confidence: HIGH

Scenario FAIL

PM RECOMMEND: KVARK becomes the lead commercial track. Day 0 launch: hive-mind + shims (OSS) + KVARK enterprise pilots opened (consulting+software bundle).

Aim 3-5 paid pilots within 90 days. Pricing per deployment $100K-$300K bundled with Egzakta advisory + LM TEK H200 hardware integration.

Waggle commercial launch decoupled 4-8 weeks (informed by KVARK pilot signal).

Rationale: FAIL eliminates Waggle SOTA narrative as primary acquisition; KVARK enterprise compliance-mandated buyers don't depend on public benchmark — they buy for sovereignty + GDPR + EU AI Act + data residency. Egzakta consulting provides high-touch delivery moat that Waggle commercial channel can't replicate.

Confidence: HIGH

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Aggregate confidence summary

Dimension	PASS conf	PARTIAL conf	FAIL conf
1. Claim narrative	HIGH	HIGH	HIGH
2. Launch coupling	HIGH	MEDIUM	HIGH
3. Pricing posture	HIGH	MEDIUM	MEDIUM
4. Audience targeting	HIGH	HIGH	HIGH
5. Press/PR strategy	MEDIUM	HIGH	HIGH
6. Hires plan	MEDIUM	HIGH	HIGH
7. Investor narrative	LOW	LOW	HIGH
8. KVARK timing	HIGH	HIGH	HIGH

Translation for Marko:

• 18/24 cells HIGH confidence → likely accept PM defaults
• 4/24 cells MEDIUM → review and consider alternative noted
• 2/24 cells LOW (investor narrative under PASS/PARTIAL — depends on Marko-personal capital structure preference) → PM defers heavily, expect override

Sutra-jutarnji ratification time: review HIGH cells (~30s each = 9 min), MEDIUM cells (~60s each = 4 min), LOW cells (~3 min each = 6 min). Total 19-20 min vs original 30-45 min estimate.

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Marko-side override mechanism

Per cell, Marko može:

• ✅ Accept — default verdict applies
• ✏️ Override — write 1-line explicit override + rationale
• 🤔 Defer — punt na separate decision moment, e.g., investor narrative may be 30-day decision window post-launch

Override format example:

Dimension 7 (Investor narrative), Scenario PASS:
✏️ OVERRIDE: defer fund-raise indefinitely; bootstrap permanently.
Rationale: Egzakta cash flow sufficient for org plan; equity dilution avoided; control prioritized. Re-evaluate u 24 months.

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Cross-cutting decisions (locked, no pre-fill needed)

Already scenario-independent per Decision Matrix §10:

• Honest framing always
• Apache 2.0 commitment locked
• hive-mind core scope locked (substrate vs runtime split per 01-architecture.md)
• EU AI Act + GDPR positioning preserved
• Domain locked (waggle-os.ai primary)

These don't need PM pre-fill ratification — they're already LOCKED.

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What this enables

When Phase 2 final halt ping arrives:

1. Marko reads halt ping (5 min)
2. Marko classifies scenario per pre-registered bands (1 min)
3. Marko opens this document, navigates to relevant scenario column across 8 dimensions
4. Marko ratifies HIGH cells (9 min), reviews MEDIUM (4 min), decides LOW (6 min)
5. Marko PM-RATIFY-V6-N400-COMPLETE + signs off Gate D exit
6. Triggered downstream sequences per scenario:
   • PASS → paste apps/www brief u CC-1, populate launch comms placeholders sa actual numbers, schedule publish
   • PARTIAL → softer comms variant, signal decoupled sequence
   • FAIL → pivot strategy ratify, defer Waggle 4-8 weeks, KVARK lead

Total Marko time-to-decision: ~25 min sa pre-fills vs ~45-60 min raw matrix-only.

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Authorization

PM (claude-opus-4-7) authoring 2026-04-25 dok agentic cell radi. Marko ratifies post-final-halt-ping. PM defaults are non-binding suggestions; Marko-vov decision authority preserved on every cell.