waggle-os/docs/briefs/2026-04-28-cc4-gepa-tier2-evolution-faza1-brief.md

CC-4 Brief — GEPA Tier 2 Prompt-Shapes Evolution (Faza 1 pilot)

Date: 2026-04-28 Author: PM Status: Authored, awaiting Marko ratification before paste-into-CC-4 Sesija type: CC-4 fresh (paralelno sa CC-1 Phase 4.4/4.5 + CC-3 memory shims) Critical path: Korak 1 → GEPA Faza 1 → Faza 2 (gated) → Phase 5 GEPA-evolved Cost cap: $100 hard, halt at $80 Wall-clock projection (not trigger): 3–5 dana CC time, ~2–3 dana wall-clock if no rate-limit blockers

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§1 — Context (zašto smo ovde)

Phase 4.3 verdikt (CC-1, commit be8f702→c9bda3d) empirijski potvrdio da H3/H4 fail je 72.2% Tier 2 (reasoning/planning failure koji zahteva prompt evoluciju), samo 5.6% Tier 1 (presentation artifact koji bi se popravio Phase 1.1 normalize). Phase 1.1 normalize delta = 0% kroz svih 12 cells. Worst-case T1 ceiling = 27.8%, ispod 30% threshold-a koji bi nam dao paper claim #2 multiplier signal. H4 je 100% T2 unanimnost.

Implikacija: agent fix sprint Phase 1-4 sam, ma koliko ga doteramo, ne može da spase multiplier tezu. Treba reasoning/planning evolucija nad prompt-ima — što je GEPA (Agrawal et al., genetic evolutionary prompt adaptation).

Ovo je gated work: Faza 1 = pilot proof-of-concept (1 cell, $100 cap). Ako Faza 1 PASS → Faza 2 expansion (sve T2-saturated cells, $200-300 cap, posebna ratifikacija). Ako Faza 1 FAIL → fallback na PHF (PASS-with-honest-framing) per Decision Matrix amendment.

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§2 — Scope LOCK (Faza 1)

Što GEPA evoluira: prompt-shapes templates u packages/core/src/prompt-shapes/. NE evoluira system prompts (cell semantics) — ti ostaju lock-ovani na manifest v6 specifikaciju da očuvamo apples-to-apples kontrolu sa Stage 3 v6 N=400 results.

Razlog: prompt-shapes evolucija je niži rizik za leakage cross-cell, evolution boundary je čist + auditable. System prompt evolucija bi compoundova confounders i ugrozila reproducibility paper claim #1 substrate (74% > Mem0 66.9%).

Cell scope Faza 1: H3 only (najjača T2 saturacija per Phase 4.3 verdict). H2 + H4 ulaze u Fazu 2 ako Faza 1 PASS. Zašto H3 prvi: maksimalni signal-to-cost ratio za "does GEPA help at all" gate.

Prompt shapes scope: svih 5 (claude / qwen-thinking / qwen-non-thinking / gpt / generic-simple). GEPA evoluira per-shape, ne unified. Selection metric = best-per-shape-per-cell (ne aggregate).

N per evaluation: 15 instanci per candidate per generation (per shape per cell). Insufficient za publishable paper claim, dovoljno za GEPA fitness signal (per Agrawal paper — fitness signal stabilizes around N=10-20 in inner loop).

Generations: 2 (initial population + 1 mutation round). Faza 1 = proof-of-concept, ne convergence search. Faza 2 expansion može da poveća na 3-5 generations.

Population: 3 candidates per shape per cell. Initial population = current shape (baseline) + 2 LLM-generated mutations (Opus 4.7 as mutation oracle).

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§3 — Methodology

3.1 — Fitness function

Composite score per candidate:

• Primary: trio-strict accuracy (Opus 4.7 + GPT-5.4 + MiniMax M2.7 ensemble, 2/3 must agree, max_tokens=3000 per Stage 3 v6 fix)
• Cost penalty: −0.5pp per $0.10 cost above baseline median (encourages efficiency)
• Tie-breaker: trio-soft accuracy (any 1/3 agreement)

Aggregate fitness per candidate = trio-strict − cost_penalty.

3.2 — NULL-baseline gate (binding)

Pre Faza 1 GEPA run, CC-4 mora da reproducira NULL-baseline = current prompt-shape on H3 cell, N=15, trio-judged. Ovo lockuje fitness floor pre evolucije.

Acceptance: NULL-baseline trio-strict mora pasti u predikcionom range-u iz Phase 4.3 (h3 cell est. 18-24% trio-strict baseline). Ako NULL-baseline ispod 15% ili iznad 30%, halt-and-PM (signal da nešto fundamentally drift-ovalo između Phase 4.3 i sad).

3.3 — Mutation oracle

Opus 4.7 generates 2 mutations per shape per generation, prompted with:

• Current shape template
• Failure mode summary (top-3 T2 failures from Phase 4.3 categorization)
• Constraint: preserve cell semantics (system prompt boundaries, output format contract)
• Mutation guidance: "modify reasoning scaffold, planning step structure, or chain-of-thought triggers — do not modify task framing or scoring criteria"

3.4 — Reproducibility

• Seed: GEPA evolution algorithm seeded with 42 (configurable in manifest v7)
• Selection set: 15 instances per cell sampled deterministic-stratified iz LoCoMo full corpus (same stratification as Stage 3 v6 manifest)
• Manifest v7: new manifest extending v6 sa GEPA section (population seed, mutation oracle SHA, generation count, candidate hashes)
• Audit trail: every candidate prompt hashed (SHA256), every evaluation logged sa raw judge outputs

3.5 — Substrate dependency

GEPA radi nad post-Phase 4.6 HEAD (mind/ + harness sa svih Phase 1-4 fix-eva integrated). Substrate version stays v6 (zero changes). Manifest v7 audit chain references manifest v6 anchor SHA.

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§4 — Acceptance criteria (Faza 1 → Faza 2 gate)

Faza 1 PASS conditions (binding, all 4 must hold):

1. Best GEPA candidate per shape beats NULL-baseline by ≥ +5pp on trio-strict (per H3 cell)
2. At least 3/5 shapes show positive delta (avoids cherry-picking single shape that lucked out)
3. Trio judge κ remains within ±0.05 of canonical 0.7878 (validates judge ensemble didn't drift mid-run)
4. Zero cell semantic violations detected (audit step §6.4)

Faza 1 FAIL conditions (any single condition triggers FAIL verdict):

• Best candidate delta < +5pp on majority shapes
• Best candidate beats NULL-baseline only by overfitting evaluation set (detected via held-out 5 instances per cell)
• κ drift > 0.05 (judge ensemble unreliable)
• Cell semantic violation found

If FAIL → fallback PHF, GEPA work parked, paper claim #2 multiplier tezu reframe-uje na "demonstrated only under V2 retrieval + Tier 1 normalize, GEPA insufficient at this scope" (acceptable academic framing, ne mora se hide).

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§5 — Cost & halt

Faza 1 cost projection (rigorous, not trigger):

• NULL-baseline: 5 shapes × 15 instances × $0.50/run × 1 cell = $37.50
• GEPA Gen 1: 5 shapes × 3 candidates × 15 instances × $0.50 × 1 cell = $112.50
• Held-out validation: 5 shapes × top-1 × 5 instances × $0.50 = $12.50

Wait — that exceeds $100 cap. Recalc with Gen 1 reduced:

Revised Faza 1 with $100 cap:

• NULL-baseline: 5 shapes × 10 instances × $0.50 × 1 cell = $25
• GEPA Gen 1: 5 shapes × 3 candidates × 10 instances × $0.50 × 1 cell = $75
• Held-out: 5 shapes × top-1 × 5 instances × $0.50 = $12.50

Total: ~$112 — still over. Final cut:

Faza 1 LOCKED scope ($100 cap, $80 halt):

• NULL-baseline: 5 shapes × 8 instances × $0.50 × 1 cell = $20
• GEPA Gen 1: 5 shapes × 3 candidates × 8 instances × $0.50 × 1 cell = $60
• Held-out: top-1 per shape × 5 instances × $0.50 = $12.50

Total: $92.50 expected, $100 hard cap. N=8 per evaluation is at lower bound of GEPA fitness signal — acceptable for proof-of-concept Faza 1, NOT acceptable for Faza 2 expansion (Faza 2 scales N to 20+).

Halt triggers (any single triggers immediate halt + PM ratify):

• Cumulative spend > $80
• κ drift detected mid-run (judge sample audit every 20 calls)
• Cell semantic violation detected (audit § 6.4)
• Mutation oracle (Opus 4.7) returns 2 consecutive invalid mutations (e.g. mutates system prompt instead of shape)
• Any LLM API blocker (rate-limit cascade, auth failure) — halt, restart with diagnostic pre-flight

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§6 — Pre-flight checks (binding, all 8 sub-rules from feedback memory)

Per feedback_config_inheritance_audit.md Extensions 1-6 + sub-rules 6-8, CC-4 mora da verifikuje pre run:

6.1 — Config inheritance audit

Eksplicitno specify Qwen + Opus + GPT + MiniMax model strings + reasoning_effort + max_tokens u manifest v7. Ne nasleduj iz manifest v6 implicitly. Naročito: Qwen reasoning mode (thinking vs non-thinking) MUST match per-shape configuration (qwen-thinking shape → reasoning enabled, qwen-non-thinking → disabled).

6.2 — Mixed-methodology baseline

NULL-baseline mora prijavljivati trio-strict + self-judge razdvojeno (ne shared aggregate). Phase 4.3 koristi trio-strict; pisanje "GEPA delta" mora citirati trio-strict numbers, ne self-judge.

6.3 — Scope verification

Pre run, CC-4 verifikuje da H3 cell ima ≥40 instanci u source corpus (potrebno za 8 NULL + 24 GEPA + 5 held-out = 37 instances + buffer). Ako H3 ima <40 instanci, halt-and-PM (signal da scope estimate pogrešan).

6.4 — Cell semantics prompt strictness preservation

Audit step pre commit Faza 1 results: za svaki GEPA candidate prompt, diff vs baseline. Diff mora biti samo unutar prompt-shape template body (between defined boundaries u shape file). Diff koji touch-uje cell.system_prompt ili cell.scoring_rubric = automatic INVALID, candidate dropped, mutation oracle re-prompted.

6.5 — σ-aware acceptance range

N=8 per cell daje cca CI ± 17pp at 95% (binomial), što je široko. +5pp acceptance threshold je ne-statistički-rigorozan na N=8 — uzima se kao fitness signal indicator, ne kao publishable claim. To je razlog zašto Faza 1 = proof-of-concept, ne paper-ready evidence. Faza 2 scale-up je tek tu za publishable σ-bounded delta.

6.6 — Mixed-methodology variant

Trio-strict je primary; self-judge je supplementary diagnostic only. Faza 1 acceptance rule (§4) bazira se na trio-strict, ne self-judge.

6.7 — Cost super-linear input growth

GEPA candidates have variable token length (mutations may grow prompts). Cost calculation must use worst-case 1.5× baseline token count per candidate (encodes mutation overhead). If actual mid-run cost exceeds projection by >30%, halt.

6.8 — Source data structure

Verify H3 source data is agentic knowledge work format (not factoid LoCoMo). Phase 4.3 categorization confirms H3 = agentic. CC-4 spot-check 3 random H3 instances pre run, confirm task structure matches pilot 2026-04-26 corpus.

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§7 — Halt-and-PM checkpoints

Faza 1 ima 3 mandatory halt-and-PM points:

Checkpoint A (post NULL-baseline, $25 cumulative):

• Report NULL-baseline results per shape
• Confirm trio-strict in 18-24% range per shape
• Confirm κ within ±0.05 of canonical
• PM authorize GEPA Gen 1 kick

Checkpoint B (mid-Gen 1, $50 cumulative):

• Report intermediate κ from first 30 evaluations
• Report any cell semantic violation
• Report mutation oracle behavior (valid mutation rate)
• PM authorize completion of Gen 1

Checkpoint C (post Gen 1 + held-out, ~$92 cumulative):

• Final results per shape (NULL-baseline vs best GEPA candidate)
• κ stability report
• Acceptance rule (§4) verdict
• PM authorize either Faza 2 expansion OR FAIL fallback PHF

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§8 — Deliverables

1. Code:

   • packages/core/src/prompt-shapes/gepa-evolved/ — directory sa best-per-shape candidates (5 files)
   • packages/core/src/prompt-shapes/gepa-evolved/manifest.json — selection metadata + audit chain
   • benchmarks/gepa/faza-1/ — run logs + raw judge outputs + κ audit + diff snapshots

2. Manifest v7:

   • benchmarks/preregistration/manifest-v7-gepa-faza1.yaml
   • Extends v6 sa GEPA section (seed, oracle SHA, candidate hashes, generation count)
   • SHA256 logged u Checkpoint C report

3. Decisions:

   • decisions/2026-04-28-gepa-faza1-launch.md (LOCK upon paste-into-CC-4)
   • decisions/2026-04-XX-gepa-faza1-results.md (post-Checkpoint C)

4. Test coverage:

   • GEPA selection logic unit-tested (≥80% coverage)
   • Mutation validator (cell semantic check) unit-tested
   • κ audit utility unit-tested

5. Memory entry:

   • .auto-memory/project_gepa_faza1_results.md post Checkpoint C

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§9 — Out-of-scope (Faza 1)

Explicitly NOT in Faza 1:

• H2 + H4 cells (Faza 2 expansion)
• More than 2 GEPA generations
• Population > 3 candidates per shape
• N > 8 per evaluation
• System prompt evolucija (locked by §2 scope)
• Substrate (mind/) modifications (locked by §3.5)
• Apples-to-apples re-eval against pilot 2026-04-26 (separate Korak 12 work)
• Paper §5.4 framing update (post Phase 5 GEPA-evolved variant complete)

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§10 — Sequencing

Predicates (must be done before CC-4 starts):

• CC-1 Phase 4.3 verdict ratified ✅
• PM brief landed in briefs/ ✅ (this file)
• Marko ratifikuje + executes paste-into-CC-4

Successors (depend on Faza 1 outcome):

• Faza 1 PASS → Faza 2 expansion brief authoring → CC-4 sledeća sesija
• Faza 1 PASS → Phase 5 GEPA-evolved variant brief (CC-1 sesija, post NULL-baseline)
• Faza 1 FAIL → PHF fallback decision memo + paper §5.4 reframe

Parallel (CC-1 + CC-4 + CC-3):

• CC-1: Phase 4.4 (skills sweep) → 4.5 (tools sweep) → Phase 5 NULL-baseline
• CC-4: Faza 1 GEPA pilot
• CC-3: Memory shims monorepo (Wave 1.3 next)

No code path conflicts between CC-1 and CC-4 (CC-1 touches harness around prompt-shapes, CC-4 produces new files in gepa-evolved/ subdir).

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§11 — Cross-references

• Phase 4.3 results: decisions/2026-04-28-phase-4-3-rescore-delta-report.md
• Manifest v6 anchor: benchmarks/preregistration/manifest-v6-preregistration.yaml
• Stage 3 v6 5-cell summary: D:\Projects\waggle-os\benchmarks\results\stage3-n400-v6-final-5cell-summary.md
• Pilot 2026-04-26 result: decisions/2026-04-26-pilot-verdict-FAIL.md
• Decision Matrix PHF amendment: decisions/2026-04-26-decision-matrix-self-judge-reframe.md
• arxiv §5.4 multiplier framing: research/2026-04-26-arxiv-paper/01-paper-skeleton.md
• Feedback memory rules: .auto-memory/feedback_config_inheritance_audit.md
• 14-step launch plan: .auto-memory/project_launch_plan_14_step_2026_04_27.md

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§12 — Open questions for Marko

1. Cost cap $100 — OK ili treba hard $80? PM rec $100 sa $80 internal halt.
2. GEPA Faza 2 escalation budget — predaj sad ili odluči post-Faza-1? PM rec post-Faza-1 (gated decision).
3. Mutation oracle = Opus 4.7 — OK ili koristimo Sonnet 4.6 za cost reduction? PM rec Opus 4.7 (better mutation quality justifies cost; only 5×3×2 = 30 mutation calls total).
4. Wall-clock priority — paralelno sa CC-1 sweep ili sequential? PM rec paralelno (no conflict).