# Manifest v4 — Task 2.5 Stage 3 N=400 Pre-Registration (machine-readable twin)
# Canonical markdown surface: manifest-v4-preregistration.md
# Any change to this file requires new PM-ratified decision doc + manifest v5.
# SHA-256 of this YAML's bytes is recorded in the anchor commit message.

manifest_version: v4.0.0-preregistration
manifest_type: stage_3_n400_preregistration
locked_date: 2026-04-24
authority: PM (Marko Markovic) — Option 1 (N=400 direct) ratified 2026-04-24 on Stage 2-Retry Gate C PARTIAL PASS exit
sprint: 12
task: 2.5
stage: 3
branch: feature/c3-v3-wrapper
code_freeze_head: 373516c2784807da8536dbc0c194c54f4e4cd4be
code_freeze_head_short: 373516c
supersedes: stage_2_retry_n20_gate_c
inherits_from: bench_spec_lock_v1_2026_04_22

# ── Field 7 slots (preregistration.ts PreregistrationManifestPayload) ───────

manifest_path: benchmarks/results/manifest-v4-preregistration.yaml
manifest_locked_at: 2026-04-24T00:00:00Z

dataset:
  name: locomo
  source_url: https://raw.githubusercontent.com/snap-research/locomo/main/data/locomo10.json
  raw_archive_path: benchmarks/data/locomo10.json
  raw_archive_sha256: 79fa87e90f04081343b8c8debecb80a9a6842b76a7aa537dc9fdf651ea698ff4
  raw_archive_bytes: 2805274
  canonical_path: benchmarks/data/locomo/locomo-1540.jsonl
  canonical_sha256: 39e415e2f3a0fa1bd3cb1804a58d0b440b50d3070b2100698437e4ec402a5b24
  canonical_instance_count: 1531
  paper_total_claim: 1540
  paper_reference: "Maharana et al., ACL-2024 — Evaluating Very Long-Term Conversational Memory of LLM Agents"
  category_distribution:
    single_hop: 841
    multi_hop: 281
    temporal: 320
    open_ended: 89

# ── Primary hypothesis (directional, confirmatory) ──────────────────────────

primary_hypothesis:
  name: memory_lift_retrieval_vs_no_context
  direction: one_sided_positive
  statement: "retrieval_judge_accuracy − no-context_judge_accuracy ≥ 5pp"
  test: fisher_exact_one_sided
  alpha_threshold: 0.10
  effect_size_threshold_pp: 5
  justification_ex_ante:
    - gate_b_dry_run_conv_scope_20_of_20_vs_whole_corpus_8_of_20_leak_2026_04_24
    - gate_c_monotonicity_no_context_0_10_lt_retrieval_0_35_lt_agentic_0_40_lt_oracle_0_55

# ── Secondary endpoints (ex-ante, non-blocking, descriptive) ────────────────

secondary_endpoints:
  S1_monotonicity_no_context_leq_retrieval:
    direction: one_sided_positive
    threshold_pp: 0
    test: fisher_exact_one_sided
    alpha: 0.20
  S2_monotonicity_retrieval_leq_agentic:
    direction: one_sided_positive
    threshold_pp: 0
    test: fisher_exact_one_sided
    alpha: 0.20
  S3_monotonicity_agentic_leq_oracle_context:
    direction: one_sided_positive
    threshold_pp: 0
    test: fisher_exact_one_sided
    alpha: 0.20
  S4_agentic_lift_over_retrieval:
    direction: descriptive
    threshold_pp: 0
    report: [point_estimate, wilson_95_ci]
  S5_abstain_penalty_oracle_minus_full_context:
    direction: descriptive_expected_positive
    report: [point_estimate]
    rationale: "SYSTEM_EVOLVED strict-abstain prompt is expected to reduce full-context accuracy below oracle-context on instances where the oracle answer is ambiguous; diagnostic only, no gating"

# ── Sample design ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

sample:
  cells:
    - no-context
    - oracle-context
    - full-context
    - retrieval
    - agentic
  n_per_cell: 400
  total_evaluations: 2000
  instance_selection_seed: 42
  instance_selection_method: "shuffle-then-take-first-N, deterministic given seed"
  matched_pairs: true
  concurrency: 2

# ── Cells semantics (frozen at HEAD 373516c) ────────────────────────────────

cells_semantics:
  no_context:
    system_prompt: SYSTEM_BASELINE
    user_prompt: "Question: {question}"
    memory_injection: none
    added_at: stage_2_retry_1_1_2026_04_24
  oracle_context:
    system_prompt: SYSTEM_BASELINE
    user_prompt: "Context: {instance.context}\\n\\nQuestion: {instance.question}"
    memory_injection: oracle_fed_by_locomo
    harness_alias: raw
    note: "PM-facing alias for harness `raw` (oracle-fed on LoCoMo; not actually zero-memory)"
  full_context:
    system_prompt: SYSTEM_EVOLVED
    user_prompt: "# Recalled Memories\\n- [memory:synth] {instance.context}\\n\\nQuestion: {instance.question}"
    memory_injection: oracle_fed_plus_evolved_abstain
  retrieval:
    system_prompt: SYSTEM_BASELINE
    substrate: waggle_core_hybrid_search
    scope: conversation_scoped_via_gopId
    top_k_default: 20
    top_k_upper_clamp: 50
  agentic:
    system_prompt: SYSTEM_AGENTIC_softened_stage2_retry
    system_prompt_sha256: 6facae6decc44a6404290514accb4f7cb364081b32d02847a20f8e871633e328
    system_prompt_bytes: 1467
    tool_allowlist:
      - search_memory
    tool_binding: "search_memory is bound to instance.conversation_id via makeSearchMemoryTool(substrate, 20, boundToGopId); non-overridable by agent"
    max_turns: 3
    timeout_ms: 180000
    forced_answer_fallback:
      enabled: true
      system_prompt: SYSTEM_AGENTIC_FORCED_FALLBACK
      trigger: "resp.content.trim() === '' && capturedToolResults.length > 0 on runAgentLoop exit"
      gate_c_firing_rate: 0

# ── Model stack ─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

subject_model: qwen3.6-35b-a3b-via-dashscope-direct
subject_fallback_1: qwen3.6-35b-a3b-via-openrouter
subject_fallback_2: NOT_AVAILABLE

subject_route_table:
  primary:
    alias: qwen3.6-35b-a3b-via-dashscope-direct
    litellm_model: qwen3.6-35b-a3b-via-dashscope-direct
    upstream_route: "LiteLLM local alias -> openai/qwen3.6-35b-a3b @ https://dashscope-intl.aliyuncs.com/compatible-mode/v1"
    provider: alibaba
    thinking: on
    max_tokens: 16000
    reasoning_shape: dashscope-native
    price_per_million_input_usd: 0.20
    price_per_million_output_usd: 0.80
    context_window: 262144
    pinning_surface: floating_alias
    pinning_surface_carve_out_reason: "DashScope-intl does not expose immutable model snapshots; floating alias mandated by B3 addendum § 5"
    note: "TRUE Qwen 3.6-35B-A3B (not the 3.5 regress of the OpenRouter bridge)"
  fallback_1:
    alias: qwen3.6-35b-a3b-via-openrouter
    litellm_model: qwen3.6-35b-a3b-via-openrouter
    upstream_route: "LiteLLM -> OpenRouter bridge (openrouter/qwen/qwen3.5-35b-a3b)"
    provider: alibaba_via_openrouter
    thinking: on
    max_tokens: 64000
    reasoning_shape: openrouter-unified
    pinning_surface: floating_alias
    note: "Known 3.5 regress via OpenRouter bridge; only used on primary network failure"
    trigger_condition: fetch_error_on_primary
  fallback_2:
    alias: NOT_AVAILABLE
    note: "No third fallback; halt if fallback_1 also fails"

judge_ensemble:
  primary:
    - judge_role: primary
      slot: primary_judge_1
      model_id: claude-opus-4-7
      provider: anthropic
      litellm_model: claude-opus-4-7
      pinning_surface: anthropic_immutable
      pinning_surface_carve_out_reason: null
      price_per_million_input_usd: 15.00
      price_per_million_output_usd: 75.00
    - judge_role: primary
      slot: primary_judge_2
      model_id: gpt-5.4
      provider: openai_via_openrouter
      litellm_model: gpt-5.4
      pinning_surface: floating_alias
      pinning_surface_carve_out_reason: "Direct OpenAI Chat Completions via LiteLLM local alias `gpt-5.4` -> `openai/gpt-5.4`; OpenAI does not expose immutable model snapshots for gpt-5.x; B3 addendum § 5"
      price_per_million_input_usd: 10.00
      price_per_million_output_usd: 30.00
    - judge_role: primary
      slot: primary_judge_3
      model_id: gemini-3.1-pro
      provider: google_via_openrouter
      litellm_model: gemini-3.1-pro
      pinning_surface: floating_alias
      pinning_surface_carve_out_reason: "Direct Google AI Studio via LiteLLM local alias `gemini-3.1-pro` -> `gemini/gemini-3.1-pro-preview`; no stable alias (preview-only); B3 addendum § 5"
      price_per_million_input_usd: 3.50
      price_per_million_output_usd: 10.50
  tiebreak:
    judge_role: reserve
    model_id: grok-4.20
    provider: xai_via_openrouter
    litellm_model: openrouter/x-ai/grok-4.20
    pinning_surface: floating_alias
    pinning_surface_carve_out_reason: "xAI does not expose immutable model snapshots through OpenRouter routing layer; floating alias mandated by B3 addendum § 5"
    price_per_million_input_usd: 5.00
    price_per_million_output_usd: 15.00
    trigger: three_way_split_1_1_1
    path_enum: quadri-vendor
    defensive_2_2_path: pm-escalation
  consistency_constraint: same_physical_judge_models_as_stage_1_stage_1_5_stage_2_stage_2_retry
  vote_policy: majority_with_grok_reserve_on_1_1_1_split
  snapshot_drift_policy: halt_and_manifest_flag

# Convenience flat list for preregistration.ts emitter compatibility
judge_primary:
  id: claude-opus-4-7
judge_secondary:
  id: gpt-5.4
judge_tie_breaker:
  id: gemini-3.1-pro

# ── Substrate ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

substrate:
  implementation: "@waggle/core::HybridSearch (RRF-fused FTS5 + vec0)"
  ingest_keying: "gop_id = conversation_id"
  scope_filter:
    parameter: gopId
    source_location: packages/core/src/mind/search.ts:14
    field_name: SearchOptions.gopId
    non_overridable: true
    benchmark_binding: instance.conversation_id
  top_k_default: 20
  top_k_upper_clamp: 50
  embedder:
    factory: createOllamaEmbedder
    base_url: http://localhost:11434
    model: nomic-embed-text
    dims: 1024
    cost: zero_local_inference
  ingest_batch_size: 200
  code_reference: benchmarks/harness/src/substrate.ts

# ── κ monitoring (inherited from Bench-Spec LOCK v1) ────────────────────────

kappa_monitoring:
  baseline_reference: sprint_10_task_2_2_kappa_0_7458
  compute: fleiss_kappa_on_pre_tiebreak_vote_matrix
  thresholds:
    pass_no_flag_kappa_min: 0.65
    pass_with_flag_kappa_range: [0.60, 0.65]
    halt_kappa_max: 0.60
    halt_drop_from_baseline_max_pp: 10
  halt_protocol: preserve_partial_jsonl_write_halted_session_ping_notify_pm

# ── Confidence intervals (inherited from Bench-Spec LOCK v1) ────────────────

confidence_intervals:
  primary:
    method: wilson_score_95
    description: "Frequentist binomial CI on instance-level binary verdicts."
  secondary:
    method: cluster_bootstrap_95
    iterations: 10000
    seed: 42
    cluster_unit: conversation_id
    resample_mode: cluster_level_with_replacement
    quantiles: [2.5, 97.5]

# ── Failure taxonomy (inherited from Bench-Spec LOCK v1) ────────────────────

failure_taxonomy:
  version: v1
  categories:
    - {code: F1, name: contradicts_ground_truth}
    - {code: F2, name: partial_answer}
    - {code: F3, name: off_topic}
    - {code: F4, name: refusal}
    - {code: F5, name: tool_use_error, scope: tool_permitted_cells_only}
    - {code: F6, name: format_violation}
  special:
    null_correct:
      description: judge_majority_verdict_correct_no_f_code
    f_other:
      description: failure_outside_f1_f6_taxonomy
      mandatory_rationale_min_words: 10
      rate_threshold_for_taxonomy_review_pct: 10

# ── Stopping rules (ex-ante, no interim looks) ──────────────────────────────

stopping_rules:
  budget_hard_halt_usd: 28.00
  budget_cap_usd: 30.00
  streak_halt: "3 consecutive fetch failures on same model -> halt (streak-tracker.ts)"
  pre_cell_health_check: "GET /health/liveliness + POST /v1/chat/completions ping per model -> halt before cell on any 5xx/fetch-error (health-check.ts)"
  runner_lock: "concurrent_runners: FORBIDDEN (runner-lock.ts); contention -> halt"
  deviation_from_preregistration: "any change to manifest v4 §1-§9 during run -> immediate halt + PM raise"
  no_interim_looks: true
  mid_run_amendment_policy: halt_restart_required

# ── Post-hoc exclusion policy: NONE ─────────────────────────────────────────

post_hoc_exclusion:
  policy: none
  evaluator_loss_handling:
    included_in_denominator: true
    reported_separately: true
    denominator_formula: "correct + incorrect + evaluator_loss"
  subject_failures_classified_as: failure_mode_per_f1_f6_taxonomy
  instance_whitelist: none
  instance_blacklist: none

# ── Budget ──────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

budget:
  cap_usd: 30.00
  hard_halt_usd: 28.00
  expected_burn_usd: 23.00
  variance_ceiling_usd: 28.00
  breakdown_expected:
    subject_qwen_dashscope_direct_usd: 2.50
    judge_triple_opus_gpt5_gemini_usd: 20.00
    embedding_ollama_local_usd: 0.00
    tie_break_grok_reserve_usd: 0.50
  scale_from_stage_2_retry_gate_c: "Gate C $1.1637 / 100 evals × 20 = $23.27"

# ── Target sample + CLI invocation ──────────────────────────────────────────

target_N: 400
target_cells:
  - no-context
  - oracle-context
  - full-context
  - retrieval
  - agentic
target_total_evaluations: 2000
target_concurrency: 2

cli_invocation_template: >
  npx tsx scripts/run-mini-locomo.ts
  --manifest benchmarks/results/manifest-v4-preregistration.yaml
  --subject qwen3.6-35b-a3b-via-dashscope-direct
  --subject-fallback-1 qwen3.6-35b-a3b-via-openrouter
  --judge-ensemble claude-opus-4-7,gpt-5.4,gemini-3.1-pro
  --v3-cells --N 400 --parallel-concurrency 2 --seed 42

# ── Code freeze assertions ──────────────────────────────────────────────────

code_freeze:
  head: 373516c2784807da8536dbc0c194c54f4e4cd4be
  branch: feature/c3-v3-wrapper
  frozen_paths:
    - benchmarks/harness/src/cells.ts
    - benchmarks/harness/src/substrate.ts
    - benchmarks/harness/src/judge-client.ts
    - benchmarks/harness/src/judge-runner.ts
    - benchmarks/harness/src/health-check.ts
    - benchmarks/harness/src/streak-tracker.ts
    - benchmarks/harness/src/runner-lock.ts
    - benchmarks/harness/src/runner.ts
    - benchmarks/harness/config/models.json
    - packages/agent/src/agent-loop.ts
    - packages/agent/src/tools.ts
    - packages/core/src/mind/search.ts
    - packages/core/src/mind/frames.ts
    - packages/core/src/mind/sessions.ts
    - packages/core/src/mind/db.ts
    - litellm-config.yaml
  permitted_delta_during_run:
    - "new JSONL files emitted to benchmarks/results/ by the N=400 run"
    - "no other file modifications"

# ── Deviation policy ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

deviation_policy:
  on_detection:
    - immediate_halt
    - pm_raise
    - re_preregister_new_manifest_v5_if_accepted
  consistency_with_bench_spec_lock_v1: preregistration.mid_run_amendment_policy == halt_restart_required

# ── PM gates ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

pm_gates:
  gate_p_pre_run:
    trigger: "anchor commit of manifest v4 md + yaml on feature/c3-v3-wrapper"
    action: "CC-1 halts; awaits PM GO on pre-registration content before N=400 kick"
    pm_checks:
      - "pre-registration content matches Stage 2-Retry Gate C ratifications"
      - "§1-§10 locked unambiguously for Gate D adjudication"
    outcomes:
      - GO: "§1.2 N=400 kickoff authorized"
      - REVISE: "Gate P loop"
  gate_d_post_run:
    trigger: "N=400 run exit (clean completion or halted per stopping_rules)"
    action: "CC-1 writes Gate D exit report at PM-Waggle-OS/sessions/2026-04-24-task25-stage3-n400-complete.md; halts"
    pm_checks:
      - "primary endpoint pass/fail (Fisher one-sided p < 0.10 on retrieval - no-context ≥ 5pp)"
      - "secondary endpoint summary (monotonicity chain, agentic lift, abstain penalty)"
      - "deviation count (expected: 0)"
      - "budget usage vs $28 hard halt / $30 cap"
      - "evaluator-loss count"
    outcomes:
      - compose_sota_claim_authority_pm
      - publish_gate
      - further_scope_matched_mem0_or_multi_model
  cc1_self_advance: forbidden_at_both_gates

# ── Scope boundaries ────────────────────────────────────────────────────────

scope_boundaries:
  claimable_at_gate_d:
    - memory_lift_magnitude_and_significance_conv_scope_qwen_harness_head_373516c
    - per_cell_judge_accuracy_wilson_95
    - monotonicity_chain_observation_5_cell
    - conv_scope_fair_comparison_methodology
    - agentic_discipline_search_rate_turns_unknown_fallback
  not_claimable_at_gate_d:
    - direct_comparability_to_mem0_91_6_different_scope_and_memory_layer
    - multi_model_generalization_stage_3_is_qwen_only
    - production_waggle_orchestrator_performance
  reserved_for_pm_at_gate_d:
    - public_claim_phrasing_venue
    - matched_scope_mem0_co_run_stage_4
    - publication_timing
  cc1_does_not_compose_public_sota_claim: true

# ── Related artefacts ───────────────────────────────────────────────────────

related:
  bench_spec_lock_v1_parent: PM-Waggle-OS/decisions/2026-04-22-bench-spec-locked.manifest.yaml
  stage_2_retry_gate_c_exit: PM-Waggle-OS/sessions/2026-04-24-task25-stage2-retry-complete.md
  stage_3_brief: PM-Waggle-OS/briefs/2026-04-24-cc-task25-stage3-n400-kickoff.md
  stage_2_retry_commit: 373516c
  rollback_tag: checkpoint/pre-self-evolution-2026-04-14
  canonical_md_surface: benchmarks/results/manifest-v4-preregistration.md

# ── Validation gates inherited from Bench-Spec LOCK v1 ──────────────────────

validation_gates:
  before_n400_kickoff:
    - anchor_commit_sha_recorded
    - manifest_yaml_sha256_recorded_in_commit_message
    - pm_gate_p_ratification_received
    - health_check_green_on_subject_plus_3_judges
    - no_concurrent_runner
  at_gate_d_exit:
    - all_2000_evals_accounted_in_denominators
    - evaluator_loss_reported_separately
    - primary_fisher_one_sided_computed
    - secondary_endpoints_reported
    - budget_reconciled
    - deviation_count_reported
    - code_freeze_reverified_head_373516c