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gepa-phase-5/cost-probe-2026-04-29-summary.md

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+# Phase 5 §0.3 Cost Probe Summary
+
+**Date:** 2026-04-29T11:19:11.627Z
+**Pricing snapshot:** 2026-04-29
+**Branch:** phase-5-deployment-v2
+**Endpoint:** http://localhost:4000 (LiteLLM proxy, matches Faza 1 runner pattern)
+
+## Per-variant statistics
+
+| Variant | Model alias | OK | Errors | p50 | p95 | max | mean | total |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| claude::gen1-v1 | claude-opus-4-7 | 5 | 0 | $0.0239 | $0.0432 | $0.0432 | $0.0250 | $0.1251 |
+| qwen-thinking::gen1-v1 | qwen3.6-35b-a3b-via-dashscope-direct | 5 | 0 | $0.0064 | $0.0176 | $0.0176 | $0.0075 | $0.0377 |
+
+## Canary cost ceiling (per brief §5.4)
+
+Formula: `canary_cost_p95_ceiling = 740 requests × max(p95) × 1.2 (buffer)`
+
+max(p95) = $0.0432
+canary_cost_p95_ceiling = 740 × $0.0432 × 1.2 = **$38.34**
+
+## Verdict
+
+**HARD-CAP-EXCEED** — ceiling $38.34 > hard cap $25.
+
+## Probe spend (this script)
+
+Total: **$0.1628**
+Brief §5.4 probe budget: $0.30-$0.50.
+
+## JSONL anchor
+
+Per-request rows: `gepa-phase-5/cost-probe-2026-04-29.jsonl`