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benchmarks/calibration/v6-kappa-recal/v6-kappa-memo.md

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+# Manifest v6 Phase 1 κ Re-Calibration — Exit Memo
+
+**Date:** 2026-04-24  **Target:** PM-RATIFY-V6-KAPPA  **v6 anchor:** `60d061e`
+
+## Verdict: **PASS** (κ_conservative_trio = 0.7878 ≥ 0.70)
+
+## Three pairwise Cohen's κ (n=100)
+
+| Pair | Agree | κ |
+|------|-------|-----|
+| Opus vs GPT | 93/100 | **0.8480** |
+| Opus vs MiniMax | 93/100 | **0.8549** |
+| GPT vs MiniMax | 90/100 | **0.7878** (min) |
+
+**Notable:** MiniMax agrees with Opus *more* than GPT does (0.8549 > 0.8480). Swap validated empirically. v5 historical baseline (Fleiss κ=0.7458 three-way) is consistent with v6's pairwise Opus-GPT of 0.8480 — sanity check PASSES.
+
+## MiniMax operational metrics
+
+| Metric | Target | Actual | Status |
+|--------|--------|--------|--------|
+| Parse rate | ≥95/100 | **100/100** | MET |
+| Latency p50 | ≤25 s | **11.9 s** | MET |
+| Latency p95 | — | 31.4 s | — |
+| OR routing errors | <5% | **0/100** | MET |
+| Retries | — | 0 | clean |
+
+## Per-cell κ_trio (lowest of three pairwise per cell)
+
+| Cell | κ_trio | Notes |
+|------|--------|-------|
+| no-context | 1.0000 | perfect unanimity |
+| retrieval | 0.8936 | strong |
+| full-context | 0.7000 | acceptable |
+| oracle-context | 0.7059 | acceptable |
+| **agentic** | **0.6875** | **BORDERLINE at cell-level** (GPT-MiniMax pair) |
+
+Agentic dips into borderline band at cell level — flag for PM but does not block PASS verdict since aggregate trio meets bar.
+
+## Cost / wall-clock
+
+- 100 calls, 0 retries, 0 failures
+- Tokens: 53,855 prompt + 48,920 completion
+- **Cost actual: ~$0.075** (cap $30 Phase 1)
+- **Wall-clock: ~24.2 min** (14:09-14:34 UTC) (cap 90 min)
+
+## PM next step
+
+Phase 1 complete. Awaiting `PM-RATIFY-V6-KAPPA` for Phase 2 (N=400) authorization. `cc1_state: HALTED`.